6th October 2022
Regenerative agriculture AgriHub
Economy

US CPI Inflation Rate Higher Than Expected, Interest Rate Hikes To Continue

Inflation hits again in the US

The United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (US CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the broad-based monthly all items increase. These increases were mostly offset by a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index.

The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent. The energy index fell 5.0 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the electricity and natural gas indexes increased. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in August, a larger increase than in July. The indexes for shelter, medical care, household furnishings and operations, new vehicles, motor vehicle insurance, and education were among those that increased over the month. There were some indexes that declined in August, including those for airline fares, communication, and used cars and trucks.

The all items index increased 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller figure than the 8.5-percent increase for the period ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 23.8 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller increase than the 32.9-percent increase for the period ending July. The food index increased 11.4 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979.

Food

The food index increased 0.8 percent in August, the smallest monthly increase in that index since December 2021. The food at home index rose 0.7 percent in August as all six major grocery store food group indexes increased. The index for other food at home rose 1.1 percent, while the index for cereals and bakery products rose 1.2 percent over the month. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index; the fruits and vegetables index; and the nonalcoholic beverages index all increased 0.5 percent in August. The index for dairy and related products increased 0.3 percent over the month, the smallest increase in that index since November 2021. The food away from home index rose 0.9 percent in August after rising 0.7 percent in July. The index for full service meals increased 0.8 percent and the index for limited service meals increased 0.7 percent over the month. The food at home index rose 13.5 percent over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending March 1979. The index for other food at home rose 16.7 percent and the index for cereals and bakery products increased 16.4 percent over the year. The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases ranging from 9.4 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 16.2 percent (dairy and related products). The index for food away from home rose 8.0 percent over the last year. The index for full service meals rose 9.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for limited service meals rose 7.2 percent over the last year.

Energy

The energy index fell 5.0 percent in August after declining 4.6 percent in July. The gasoline index fell 10.6 percent over the month following a 7.7-percent decrease in July. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 12.2 percent in August.) However, the electricity index increased in August, rising 1.5 percent, its fourth consecutive monthly increase of at least 1.3 percent. The index for natural gas also increased over the month, rising 3.5 percent after declining 3.6 percent in July. The energy index rose 23.8 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index increased 25.6 percent over the span and the fuel oil index rose 68.8 percent. The index for electricity rose 15.8 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending August 1981. The index for natural gas increased 33.0 percent over the last 12 months.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in August after increasing 0.3 percent in July. The shelter index continued to rise, increasing 0.7 percent in August compared to 0.5 percent in July. The rent index rose 0.7 percent in August as did the owners’ equivalent rent index. The index for lodging away from home rose 0.1 percent over the month after declining in June and July. The medical care index rose 0.7 percent in August after rising 0.4 percent in July as major medical care component indexes continued to increase. The index for hospital services increased 0.7 percent over the month, while the index for prescription drugs increased 0.4 percent. The index for physicians’ services rose 0.2 percent in August. The index for household furnishings and operations continued to rise, increasing 1.0 percent in August after rising 0.6 percent in July. The new vehicles index increased 0.8 percent over the month, and the motor vehicle insurance index rose 1.3 percent in August. Other indexes that increased in August include personal care (+0.6 percent), education (+0.5 percent), recreation (+0.2 percent), and apparel (+0.2 percent). The index for airline fares continued to decline in August, decreasing 4.6 percent after falling 7.8 percent in July. The communication index fell 0.2 percent in August following a 0.4-percent decline in July. The index for used cars and trucks also declined over the month, falling 0.1 percent. The index for all items less food and energy rose 6.3 percent over the past 12 months, a larger increase than the 5.9-percent increase for the 12 months ending in July. The shelter index rose 6.2 percent over the last year, accounting for about 40 percent of the total increase in all items less food and energy. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include household furnishings and operations (+9.9 percent), medical care (+5.4 percent), new vehicles (+10.1 percent), and used cars and trucks (+7.8 percent).

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 8.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 296.171 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index was unchanged prior to seasonal adjustment. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 8.7 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 291.629 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index declined 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 8.0 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.

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