Key Takeaways
- Index Growth: The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose to 116 in February, a three-point increase in Farmers' Sentiment from January.
- Bifurcated Outlook: While the Current Conditions Index jumped 11 points, the Future Expectations Index fell to its lowest level since September 2024.
- Expansion Plans: Despite financial pressures, 51% of producers plan to expand their operations over the next five years.
- Assistance Utilization: Nearly half of farmers (47%) intend to use Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payments to reduce existing debt.
- Sector Disparity: Confidence remains split by commodity, with 63% of crop producers expecting “bad times” compared to only 17% of livestock producers.
Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Shows Modest Gains In Farmers' Sentiment
Farmer sentiment saw a modest rebound in February as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reached 116 points. The 3-point increase from January was driven primarily by a stronger assessment of current conditions. However, the gain was tempered by a continued slide in long-term optimism, with the Future Expectations Index sitting 45 points lower than the same period last year.
The survey, conducted from February 2-6, 2026, revealed that 44% of respondents feel their operations are in a worse financial position than a year ago. Concerns regarding agricultural exports and the general direction of the U.S. economy remain elevated, despite moderating slightly from January.
Capital Investment and Farmer Sentiment Growth Trends
The Farm Capital Investment Index saw a slight uptick, rising 3 points to 50. Despite this, actual purchasing intent remains low; only 7% of farmers indicated plans to increase machinery acquisitions in the coming year. High input costs and lower commodity prices continue to be the primary drivers of this cautious spending behavior.
Growth expectations for the next five years remain steady. While 15% of farmers plan to downsize, 51% intend to expand their operations. Notably, 36% of respondents plan to bring a new family member into the business within the next five years, signaling a commitment to long-term succession despite immediate market volatility.
Farmland Values and the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer
Optimism regarding short-term farmland values rose in February, with the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increasing to 123. Conversely, long-term confidence continued to wane. The long-term index, which hit a record 166 in December 2025, has now declined for two consecutive months to a reading of 150. Producers identified interest rates, net farm income, and alternative investments as the most influential factors on land valuation.
Financial Management via Farmer Bridge Assistance
A significant portion of the February survey focused on the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. When asked about the principal use of these upcoming payments, 47% of producers prioritized debt reduction. Another 27% indicated the funds would be used to bolster working capital, while the remainder was earmarked for family living expenses (12%) or machinery investment (14%).
“Although producers reported stronger current conditions in February, the overall survey sentiment suggests farmers are carefully weighing short-term stability against longer-term uncertainty,” said Michael Langemeier, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
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