Key Takeaways:
- Planet Tracker’s latest report highlights gaps in Brazil’s National Fertiliser Plan (PNF), which aims to reduce import dependency but lacks targets to reduce synthetic fertiliser overuse and related emissions.
- Synthetic fertiliser use is linked to 7% of Brazil’s national emissions, with nearly half stemming from imported products, posing risks to climate goals and natural ecosystems.
- Emissions could increase by 89% by 2050 if synthetic fertiliser production expands domestically without corresponding demand reductions.
- Transitioning to regenerative agriculture could reduce fertiliser-related emissions by up to 86%, while also improving soil health and lowering costs for farmers.
- Financial institutions are urged to engage with stakeholders and align capital flows toward sustainable agriculture to mitigate climate, biodiversity, and economic risks.
Planet Tracker Report Raises Concerns Over Brazil’s Fertiliser Policy and Emissions Outlook
Planet Tracker, a non-profit financial think tank, has released a new report analyzing Brazil’s fertiliser strategy and its implications for climate, nature, and the economy. The report, titled Brazil’s fertiliser risks: identifying innovation and investment opportunities, examines the environmental footprint of synthetic fertiliser use and identifies investment pathways for a more sustainable agricultural future.
According to the research, 86% of Brazil’s fertiliser supply is currently imported, and while the PNF aims to reduce this dependency, it does not include explicit targets for reducing fertiliser use or mitigating its environmental impacts.
Environmental and Financial Implications of Fertiliser Use
Emissions and Pollution from Synthetic Fertiliser
The report estimates that synthetic fertiliser use in Brazil generates between 79 and 83 million tonnes of CO2e annually, accounting for 7% of national emissions in 2021. Of this, 47% is attributed to the production of imported fertiliser.
If domestic fertiliser production increases under the current plan without reducing demand, emissions could rise by up to 89% by 2050, making it harder for Brazil to meet its net-zero commitments and increasing the country’s reported emissions under international frameworks.
“The overuse of synthetic fertiliser in Brazil poses significant nature and climate risks,” said Emma Amadi, Senior Research Analyst at Planet Tracker. “This report calls on financial institutions to support the transition to a more sustainable and regenerative agricultural system.”
Pathways to Reduced Emissions and Sustainable Agriculture According To Planet Tracker
Regenerative Agriculture and Bio-Innovation
The report outlines scenarios for reducing emissions by cutting demand for synthetic fertiliser:
- A 60% reduction in fertiliser use by 2050 could cut emissions by up to 86% compared to 2021 levels.
- Adopting regenerative agriculture techniques, including organic fertilisers, crop rotation, and nitrogen-fixing plants, could reduce emissions by 46 Mt CO2e.
- Scaling bio-inoculant use—applying nitrogen-fixing bacteria to seeds—could avoid an additional 13 Mt CO2e in emissions.
Beyond emissions, reducing fertiliser use could lessen water pollution and lower farming input costs.
Planet Tracker Recommendations for Financial Institutions and Policymakers
Planet Tracker calls on sovereign bond investors and financial institutions to play an active role in promoting sustainable practices in Brazil:
- Engage with government ministries to update the PNF with targets to cut synthetic fertiliser use by 20% by 2030 and 70% by 2050.
- Support biodiversity policy updates aligned with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by mid-2025.
- Encourage food producers to disclose fertiliser-related emissions (Scope 1 and 3) and incorporate them into net-zero plans by 2026.
- Allocate 20% of agriculture-related financing to regenerative practices by 2030.
