Key Takeaways
- A new Cerulogy report commissioned by Transport & Environment (T&E) finds global biofuels emit 16% more CO₂ on average than the fossil fuels they replace, largely due to deforestation and agricultural expansion.
- Biofuel production is projected to rise by at least 40% by 2030, potentially adding 70 MtCO₂e annually—the equivalent of emissions from nearly 30 million diesel cars.
- Current biofuel crops occupy 32 million hectares of land, expected to grow to 52 million by 2030, an area equivalent to the size of France.
- T&E urges governments ahead of COP30 in Brazil to limit biofuel expansion, calling instead for investment in electrification and advanced, waste-based fuels.
- Japan’s support for expanding first-generation biofuels drew criticism from T&E, which advocates for stricter sustainability standards aligned with frameworks such as the EU’s FuelEU Maritime initiative.
Biofuels’ Emissions Challenge Climate Credentials, Says T&E
Global biofuels production emits on average 16% more CO₂ than fossil fuels, according to a new Cerulogy report commissioned by Transport & Environment (T&E). The study warns that as demand rises by 40% by 2030, biofuels could generate 70 MtCO₂e more emissions than the fossil fuels they replace, undermining their role as a climate solution.
The higher emissions are primarily attributed to the indirect impacts of land-use change, including deforestation and agricultural expansion tied to crop-based biofuels such as palm oil and soy.
Land, Water, and Food Security Concerns
Currently, 32 million hectares of farmland—an area the size of Italy—are used to grow biofuel feedstocks, meeting just 4% of global transport energy needs. By 2030, this figure could climb to 52 million hectares, or the size of France.
The report highlights the opportunity cost of such land use, noting that it could instead feed 1.3 billion people, while using just 3% of that land for solar energy could power nearly a third of the world’s cars if converted to electricity.
“Biofuels are a terrible climate solution and a staggering waste of land, food, and millions in subsidies,” said Cian Delaney, Biofuels Campaigner at T&E. “Burning crops for fuel only pushes us further in the wrong direction.”
T&E’s findings also underscore biofuels’ water intensity: driving 100 km on first-generation biofuels requires around 3,000 litres of water, compared to just 20 litres for an electric vehicle powered by solar energy.
Policy Implications and Global Expansion
The report comes ahead of COP30 in Brazil, where biofuel expansion is expected to be a major discussion topic. Brazil, now among the fastest-growing producers, recently suspended its soy moratorium—raising concerns about new deforestation pressures in the Amazon.
Other major producers, including Canada and India, are also expanding biofuel output. Meanwhile, demand from shipping and aviation sectors could intensify competition for agricultural land.
T&E Calls for a Policy Shift Toward Sustainable Alternatives
T&E criticized Japan’s support for Brazil’s proposal to quadruple global biofuel production, urging a pivot toward advanced, waste-based biofuels with strict certification standards.
“Instead of promoting first-generation fuels like palm and soybean oil, which risk worsening deforestation and climate impacts, Japan should focus on advanced, waste-based biofuels,” said Jude Lee, APAC Regional Policy and Program Director at T&E.
T&E called on governments to ensure climate policies exclude biofuels linked to land clearance and to redirect public funds toward electrification, energy efficiency, and truly sustainable technologies.
Read the entire report.
