Key Takeaways:
- The Directions Group (formerly Aimpoint Research) released a report analyzing potential agricultural impacts of the 2024 U.S. election.
- The report outlines policy scenarios covering tax reform, trade, tariffs, sustainability, and labor.
- A new tax bill in 2025 is expected, with potential impacts on estate taxes and tariffs.
- The Directions Group will host a public webinar on October 1 to discuss the report’s findings and ag policy outlook for 2025.
The Directions Group Analyzes 2024 U.S. Election Impacts on Agriculture
The Directions Group, previously known as Aimpoint Research, has released a new report evaluating how the results of the 2024 U.S. election could impact the agricultural sector. The report, titled the 2024 U.S. Election Analysis for Agriculture, provides a detailed look at multiple policy scenarios and their associated impacts on agriculture, offering businesses and producers insights on how to plan for different possible outcomes. The analysis aims to provide clear guidance on how to navigate agricultural challenges and opportunities, regardless of the political landscape.
“It is always important to monitor ag policy as a producer or business owner, but especially in an election year and the year following,” said Mark Purdy, Executive Vice President of Agri-Food at The Directions Group. “In 2025, we are facing three hallmark pieces of legislation that will have a very real impact on our industry. The new Congress with the incoming administration will need to pass a new tax bill, approve a federal budget, and address the expiring Farm Bill.”
The report evaluates the most likely policy positions for both major U.S. political parties and outlines potential scenarios for key agricultural priorities, including tax reform, trade, tariffs, sustainability, and labor policies. According to Purdy, the goal of the report is to help businesses strategize for success, regardless of the election outcome.
Tax Reform and Tariffs: Key Areas of Focus
One of the most pressing issues identified in the report is the expiration of the current tax bill at the end of 2025. According to the analysis, the introduction of a new tax bill will likely require budgetary offsets, potentially through increased tariffs or changes to the estate tax. The report outlines how these changes could impact U.S. agriculture, especially with regard to input costs and export competitiveness.
“Regardless of election outcomes, we expect to see tariffs continue to play a role in trade policy,” said Dave Juday, executive advisor to The Directions Group and lead economist for the report. “Paired with likely retaliatory tariffs, the trade outlook for agriculture will continue to feel pressure.” Juday noted that party positions vary on tax reform, particularly around estate taxes and capital gains, but each of these areas could have significant implications for agricultural producers and businesses.
For example, the current estate tax exemption is $13.6 million with a 40% tax rate, but if no action is taken, the exemption will drop to $5 million. The report highlights the importance of these changes, noting that an exemption of $5 million would be equivalent to 422 acres of farmland in Iowa. Any inherited land exceeding this amount would be subject to the 40% tax rate.
Looking Ahead: Ag Policy in 2025
The 2024 U.S. Election Analysis for Agriculture also covers regulatory agendas, sustainability, and labor issues that could affect the agricultural sector after the 2024 election. In addition to tax and tariff concerns, the report emphasizes that major legislative developments such as the approval of a federal budget and the reauthorization of the Farm Bill will likely play pivotal roles in shaping agricultural policy.
“2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for ag policy,” said Juday. “Individually, each of these issues has the potential to impact ag businesses and producers significantly, and it’s critical for producers and ag organizations to be prepared.”
In addition to legislative changes, the report also touches on potential impacts from Presidential Executive Orders, midnight regulations, and recent judicial rulings, including the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the “Chevron deference,” which could influence future regulatory decisions.
