Key Takeaways
- The U.S. wheat outlook for 2023/24 shows higher supplies and domestic use but unchanged exports.
- U.S. corn production is expected to decline, affecting domestic use and exports.
- The U.S. rice market is set for reduced supplies but higher exports, mainly to Mexico and Central America.
- U.S. oilseed production, mainly soybean, is expected to decline, affecting global oilseed markets.
- The U.S. cotton market is expected to see a decrease in production, exports, and ending stocks.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has released its outlook for various agricultural commodities for the 2023/24 season. The report provides insights into wheat, corn, rice, oilseeds, sugar, livestock, poultry, dairy, and cotton markets. Here’s a detailed analysis of what to expect in the coming year.
U.S. Wheat Outlook
The 2023/24 outlook for U.S. wheat shows an increase in supplies by 85 million bushels, primarily due to higher production. Domestic use is expected to rise by 30 million bushels, and ending stocks are projected to increase by 55 million bushels to 670 million. However, the season-average farm price will drop to $7.30 per bushel. On the global front, the wheat outlook indicates reduced supplies, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower stocks, with global ending stocks projected to be the lowest since the 2015/16 season.
U.S. Corn Outlook
The U.S. corn market is expected to see reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use, decreased exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecasted to be 15.064 billion bushels, a decline of 70 million bushels. Both exports and feed use are expected to be reduced by 25 million bushels each, leading to a 110 million bushel reduction in ending stocks. The season-average corn price is expected to rise to $4.95 per bushel.
U.S. Rice Outlook
The U.S. rice market is expected to have slightly reduced supplies but higher exports. The all-rice yield is projected to decrease by 14 pounds per acre to 7,737 pounds. Exports are expected to rise by 1.0 million cwt to 86.0 million, mainly due to strong early sales and shipments to Mexico and Central America. The season-average farm price is expected to remain at $16.80 per cwt.
U.S. Oilseed Outlook
The U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is forecasted at 120.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from last month. This decline is mainly due to the lower soybean, cottonseed, peanut, rapeseed, and sunflower seed production. Despite the lower production, ending stocks are expected to remain unchanged at 220 million bushels.
U.S. Sugar and Livestock Outlook
The sugar supply in Mexico for 2022/23 is expected to increase, but exports will decline. In the U.S., the 2022/23 and 2023/24 sugar supplies are expected to decrease. The 2023 red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered, although beef and pork production is expected to rise.
U.S. Cotton Outlook
The U.S. cotton market is expected to see a decrease in production, exports, and ending stocks. Production is projected to be down by 315,000 bales to 12.8 million bales. Exports are expected to be reduced by 100,000 bales to 12.2 million, leading to a 200,000-bale reduction in ending stocks.
Photo by Tomasz Bazylinski on Unsplash
