Key Takeaways
- CoBank reports that near-term U.S. broiler production remains strong despite emerging constraints.
- Slower processing plant expansion and labor challenges are limiting capacity growth.
- Genetic shifts toward higher meat yield have reduced chick availability.
- Value-added and further processed products are supporting short-term demand growth.
- Long-term production gains may require new approaches beyond per-bird efficiency.
Near-Term Strength Meets Capacity Constraints in U.S. Chicken Production According To CoBank
The U.S. chicken industry has benefited from decades of rising consumer demand and steady gains in production efficiency, establishing chicken as the most consumed animal protein in the country. However, a new analysis from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange indicates that while near-term production conditions remain favorable, structural challenges are increasingly limiting opportunities for sustained long-term growth.
Higher capital costs, persistent labor shortages, and increased local regulatory scrutiny have slowed the pace of new processing plant construction. As a result, greenfield expansion has become more difficult, placing pressure on existing infrastructure to support continued output growth. At the same time, biological and operational limits within current production systems are becoming more apparent.
U.S. per capita chicken consumption has increased by approximately 30 pounds since 1995 and now stands at 103 pounds, according to USDA data. Consumption is projected to reach 107 pounds by 2030, well ahead of beef and pork, reinforcing steady demand expectations for the sector.
CoBank Analysis Highlights Genetics and Product Mix Pressures
A central constraint identified in the CoBank report is declining chick availability. Over time, broiler genetics have shifted away from maximizing hatchability toward improving feed conversion efficiency and meat yield. This change has enabled producers to generate more than 1,000 pounds of chicken from a single egg-laying hen, representing a 17% increase since 2005. However, the trade-off has been fewer chicks entering the production system, limiting expansion through higher bird numbers.
“The potential long-term challenge becomes how big is too big for birds on the processing line, and what will drive consumer preferences for chicken products into 2030 and beyond,” said Brian Earnest, lead animal protein economist with CoBank.
Processing Efficiency and Value-Added Products Drive Short-Term Growth
The composition of chicken products available to consumers has changed substantially over the past three decades. Further processed products now account for nearly half of all chicken sold in the U.S., compared with a market once dominated by whole birds and raw cuts. Jumbo birds are well suited for this segment, supporting products such as nuggets, tenders, and sandwiches.
Earnest noted that while investments in secondary processing and larger birds are helping meet near-term demand, these strategies are not a permanent solution for increasing overall production. Instead, continued gains will rely on processing line efficiency, operational flexibility, and technology adoption until broader capacity expansion becomes viable.
Discover the entire report here.
