Key Takeaways
- New research from Vanguard Renewables outlines 1,580 trillion Btu of untapped renewable natural gas (RNG) potential in the Midwest
- Bio-LNG could help U.S. LNG exports meet tightening global maritime emissions standards
- Study estimates $1.1–$2 billion in additional annual farm revenue and up to 680,000 new jobs
- Policy gap under the Renewable Fuel Standard may limit investment in maritime bio-LNG
- Bipartisan legislation introduced to address regulatory barriers
Vanguard Renewables Highlights Midwest RNG Opportunity
New research published by Vanguard Renewables finds that agricultural waste across the U.S. Midwest could generate approximately 1,580 trillion Btu of renewable natural gas (RNG), more than eight times the size of the current RNG market.
According to the white paper, crop residues and food waste represent a significant, underutilized feedstock base. When upgraded and liquefied, RNG becomes bio-LNG, a fuel compatible with existing liquefied natural gas infrastructure. Bio-LNG can serve as a drop-in solution for maritime shipping, allowing conventional LNG to meet international low-carbon fuel requirements without new vessels or infrastructure modifications.
The findings position America’s agricultural heartland as a potential contributor to both domestic energy production and global fuel markets.
Maritime Market Growth and Competitive Positioning
The research notes that bio-LNG could play a role in maintaining U.S. LNG competitiveness as maritime operators transition away from traditional diesel fuels and as lifecycle emissions standards tighten internationally.
However, the report identifies a regulatory limitation: ocean-going vessels are excluded from the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), meaning bio-LNG used in maritime applications does not qualify for the same renewable fuel credits available to other sectors. According to Vanguard Renewables, this policy gap could affect long-term investment signals.
Bipartisan legislation has been introduced to address this exclusion and align U.S. policy with European frameworks.
“The Midwest is sitting on a production advantage that can strengthen rural economies and extend U.S. energy leadership for decades,” said Mike O'Laughlin, CEO of Vanguard Renewables and author of the white paper. “The region has the feedstock, the land, and the proximity to existing infrastructure to scale quickly, but targeted policy action is needed now to unlock this generational opportunity.”
Vanguard Renewables Details Economic Impact Projections
The white paper outlines potential economic outcomes if the Midwest scales RNG production:
- Rural Prosperity: $1.1 billion to $2 billion in additional annual farm revenue, totaling $105 billion to $185 billion through 2050
- Infrastructure Investment: $120 billion to $220 billion in production and delivery infrastructure
- Job Creation: Between 390,000 and 680,000 jobs across agriculture, energy infrastructure, and maritime sectors
The study estimates cumulative GDP growth potential of $2 trillion to $3 trillion by 2050. State-level analysis identifies areas of concentrated opportunity; for example, Ohio could increase its RNG output approximately sevenfold by incorporating agricultural residues into its feedstock mix.
According to Vanguard Renewables, coordinated action among policymakers, farmers, private investors, and local communities would be required to capture the full market potential and expand U.S. export capacity.
Read the white paper.
