WASDE Report: Key Agricultural Market Updates

Key Takeaways from the WASDE Report

• WASDE incorporates only active trade policies, with U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico suspended until April 2, while Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain.
• Global wheat production rises, with larger crops in Australia, Argentina, and Ukraine, but U.S. exports decline.
• WASDE projects global corn production up by 3.2 million tons, driven by gains in India, Russia, and Ukraine, while South Africa and Mexico see declines.
• Soybean prices drop to $9.95 per bushel, with global soybean crush increasing due to demand from China and Argentina.
• U.S. rice exports increase, while global rice stocks decrease slightly due to stronger consumption in Bangladesh and Nepal.
• Cotton production rises in China, but Pakistan and Argentina see declines, leading to lower global ending stocks.
• WASDE forecasts higher U.S. beef and chicken production but lower pork and turkey output, reflecting market trends and disease concerns.

WASDE Trade and Policy Considerations

Impact of Trade Policies on Agricultural Forecasts

The WASDE report reflects only active trade policies, meaning:

• U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico remain suspended until April 2, delaying the incorporation of reciprocal tariffs in commodity forecasts.
• Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain in place and are included in the WASDE estimates.
• U.S.-China tariffs are assumed to remain, continuing to impact agricultural trade between the two countries.

WASDE Wheat Outlook: Increased Production, Higher Ending Stocks

U.S. Wheat Market

• Wheat imports rise by 10 million bushels to 140 million, increasing overall supply.
• Exports are lowered by 15 million bushels to 835 million, due to weaker sales expectations.
• Ending stocks rise to 819 million bushels, an 18% increase from the previous year.
• The season-average farm price is reduced by $0.05 per bushel, now at $5.50.

Global Wheat Market Trends

• Global wheat supplies rise by 5.4 million tons, with higher production in Australia, Argentina, and Ukraine.
• China’s wheat imports decline by 1.5 million tons, reflecting reduced demand.
• Projected global ending stocks increase to 260.1 million tons, led by Turkey, Argentina, Australia, and Russia.

WASDE Coarse Grains Forecast: Stable U.S. Outlook, Global Production Gains

U.S. Corn Market

• No changes in U.S. corn production or price projections, with the season-average price remaining at $4.35 per bushel.

Global Coarse Grain Trends

• Corn production rises by 3.2 million tons, led by India, Russia, and Ukraine.
• South Africa and Mexico see declines, due to reduced planting and lower yields.
• Brazil’s corn exports decrease, while Argentina’s exports rise.
• Global corn ending stocks fall to 288.9 million tons, largely due to reductions in China and Argentina.

WASDE Rice Market: Higher U.S. Exports, Global Stock Adjustments

U.S. Rice Market

• Imports increase by 1 million cwt, setting a new record of 48 million cwt, led by higher Thai and Indian rice shipments.
• Exports increase by 1 million cwt, particularly for medium- and short-grain rice, mainly to Northeast Asia.
• The season-average farm price is raised by $0.20 per cwt, now at $15.60.

Global Rice Market

• Minimal global production changes.
• Consumption increases slightly, driven by Bangladesh and Nepal.
• Global ending stocks decrease slightly to 181.5 million tons.

WASDE Oilseeds Forecast: Soybean Prices Drop as Crush Demand Rises

U.S. Soybean Market

• No major changes to production or use projections.
• Soybean oil exports rise, while biofuel use declines.
• The season-average soybean price is lowered by $0.15 per bushel, now at $9.95.

Global Oilseeds Trends

• Soybean crush increases by 2.9 million tons, led by China, Argentina, Thailand, and Pakistan.
• Global soybean ending stocks decline to 121.4 million tons, mainly due to reductions in China and Argentina.
• Sunflowerseed production increases in Russia and Ukraine, while rapeseed production rises in Australia and Ukraine.

WASDE Sugar Market: Lower Imports Drive U.S. Supply Reduction

• U.S. sugar supply decreases by 75,701 short tons (STRV) due to lower imports.
• Louisiana’s sugar production increases, while Florida’s output declines due to weaker cane yields.
• Ending stocks fall to 1.872 million STRV, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.04%.
• Mexico’s sugar production remains stable, though U.S.-licensed exports decline.

WASDE Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Market: Mixed Production Trends

U.S. Red Meat and Poultry Forecast

• Beef and chicken production rise, while pork and turkey production decrease.
• Beef exports increase, supported by higher domestic production.
• Pork and broiler exports fall, due to price competition.
• Egg production declines, influenced by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).

Price Forecasts

• Cattle and hog prices decline in early 2025, reflecting lower demand.
• Broiler and turkey prices decrease, due to market conditions.
• Egg prices decline, reflecting weakening demand after an earlier HPAI-driven surge.
• Milk production estimates are lowered, with the all-milk price forecast at $21.60 per cwt.

WASDE Cotton Outlook: Global Production Rises, Ending Stocks Fall

U.S. Cotton Market

• No changes to the U.S. cotton balance sheet.
• Season-average farm price reduced to 63 cents per pound.

Global Cotton Trends

• China’s production rises, while Pakistan and Argentina’s output declines.
• Consumption increases in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Egypt.
• Exports increase in Brazil and Turkey, but decline in Australia and Egypt.
• Global ending stocks fall by 80,000 bales, indicating tighter supplies.

Read the complete report here.