Key Takeaways from the July WASDE Report
- The July WASDE Report forecasts higher U.S. wheat exports and lower ending stocks despite increased production.
- U.S. corn supply is expected to decline due to reduced acreage, while soybean crush is projected to grow on strong biofuel demand.
- The global rice market remains tight, with U.S. production lowered due to adverse weather.
- The WASDE Report shows diverging trends across grains, oilseeds, and livestock sectors heading into 2025/26.
- Global trade adjustments and environmental factors continue to influence supply and price expectations.
WASDE Report Highlights Wheat Supply Growth, Export Gains
U.S. Outlook Shows Modest Production Gains with Tightened Stocks
According to the latest WASDE Report, the 2025/26 U.S. wheat outlook includes a slight increase in supplies, stable domestic use, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. Production is projected at 1,929 million bushels—up 8 million from last month due to improved yields. Despite this increase, ending stocks are forecast to decline to 890 million bushels.
Winter wheat production is lowered by 36 million bushels, while other spring wheat and durum are also projected lower compared to 2024. On the global stage, wheat supplies are expected to contract due to lower production in Canada, Ukraine, and Iran. World trade is projected down by 1.3 million tons to 213.1 million.
Corn and Coarse Grains: Lower Area Drives Stock Reductions
Corn Ending Stocks Cut as Feed Use Drops
The WASDE Report projects U.S. corn supplies will fall due to lower planted and harvested area. Production is down 115 million bushels, though yield remains unchanged at 181 bushels per acre. Feed and residual use is lowered by 75 million bushels, but exports are raised to a projected record high of 2.8 billion bushels. Ending stocks are now forecast at 90 million bushels lower than last month.
Globally, coarse grain output is revised downward by 3.6 million tons, with foreign corn stocks reduced for China and India and only partially offset by Brazil.
Barley and oats production are raised slightly in the U.S., while sorghum is cut due to lower area. Global barley production also declines.
Soybeans and Oilseeds: Crush Grows with Biofuel Demand
Policy Incentives Drive Higher Soybean Oil Use
U.S. soybean production is projected slightly lower due to reduced harvested area, while soybean crush is raised by 50 million bushels to meet growing demand for biofuel. The WASDE Report cites federal and state policy incentives—including the EPA’s proposed rule for renewable fuel standards and the 45Z tax credit—as key drivers of increased soybean oil demand, now forecast at 15.5 billion pounds.
Soybean exports are cut by 70 million bushels, while ending stocks are raised to 310 million. The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down $0.15 from last month.
Globally, soybean production is raised slightly, while ending stocks increase to 126.1 million tons, reflecting higher inventories in Brazil and the U.S.
WASDE Report Signals Lower Rice Supplies, Higher Prices
U.S. Planting Disruptions Tighten Market Outlook
The U.S. rice outlook is revised down due to planting disruptions from spring flooding in Arkansas. Production is now forecast at 205 million cwt, down 7.9 million from last month. Exports and domestic use are both reduced, while ending stocks decline 5% to 44.7 million cwt.
The WASDE Report raises season-average prices for all rice categories by $0.50 per cwt. Globally, rice stocks are lowered due to reductions in China and Burma, although world trade is slightly up.
Livestock, Dairy, and Cotton: Shifting Production and Prices According To WASDE’s Report
Meat Forecast Mixed; Dairy Prices Up
Total U.S. red meat and poultry production is revised down for 2025, with higher pork and broiler output offset by reduced beef and turkey. Egg production is also down based on hatchery data. Hog prices are forecast higher, while beef prices are slightly lowered. Milk prices are revised upward to $22.00 per cwt.
Cotton production is forecast higher at 14.6 million bales due to expanded harvested area. Ending stocks rise to 4.6 million bales, while global stocks increase by 520,000 bales on higher production in the U.S., China, and Mexico.
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