The 2023/24 U.S. wheat outlook forecasts a rise in supplies, no change in domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The increase in supplies is primarily due to a spike in Hard Red Winter wheat production, offsetting decreases in Soft Red Winter and White Winter varieties. Despite a slight uptick in yield per acre, the numbers are still trailing behind the previous year. With total use remaining static, the enhanced production contributes to larger ending stocks. However, larger wheat supplies domestically and globally have lowered the season-average farm price.
Globally, the 2023/24 wheat outlook suggests larger supplies, elevated consumption, increased trade, and higher ending stocks. The surge in supply is mostly driven by higher production in Russia, India, the EU, and Ukraine, with favorable conditions contributing to increased yields. Consumption has primarily risen due to increased feed and residual use in China, Russia, and India, leading to a projected increase in world trade.
The U.S. corn outlook for 2023/24 remains largely unchanged from the previous month, with both beginning and ending stocks seeing a marginal increase. Beginning stocks have risen due to anticipated drops in exports for the current year, while expectations of competition from Brazil have contributed to lower export forecasts, leading to elevated ending stocks for 2023/24.
The U.S. rice outlook anticipates a decrease in supplies due to a drop in beginning stocks, which is projected to lower the total ending stocks. Globally, however, the rice outlook for 2023/24 shows increases in supplies, consumption, and ending stocks, led by India’s more significant production in the previous year.
U.S. soybean projections for 2023/24 indicate increased beginning and ending stocks, mainly due to reduced exports for 2022/23 in the face of increased competition from South America. The unchanged usage leads to a projection of 350 million bushels in soybean ending stocks, an increase of 15 million.
Mexico’s sugar production for 2022/23 has declined due to lower sugarcane yield and sucrose recovery. This decrease impacts the IMMEX re-export program, leading to lower exports and ending stocks. The U.S. sugar supply for 2023/24 is also projected to be lower, with reduced beginning stocks and production.
The U.S. red meat and poultry production outlook for 2023 is mixed, with higher beef production offset by lower pork and poultry production. The forecast for 2024 suggests a small increase in beef production, while other species remain steady. Price forecasts indicate higher cattle prices for 2023 and reduced prices for broilers, turkeys, and eggs.
U.S. cotton projections for 2023/24 suggest lower beginning stocks but increased production, exports, and ending stocks. Improved weather conditions have reduced crop abandonment in the Southwest, leading to increased production and exports. However, the season-average upland farm price has seen a slight decrease, while ending stocks are higher. Globally, the outlook for 2023/24 cotton indicates increased beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks.
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