Key Takeaways
- Wheat: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 are slightly higher according to the latest WASDE report, with global stocks also rising due to increased production in several regions.
- Coarse Grains: U.S. corn production is revised downward, while global production sees increases for China and Russia.
- Rice: U.S. rice production reaches record yields; global supplies and trade decline.
- Oilseeds: Lower U.S. soybean production leads to reduced ending stocks, while global soybean crush increases.
- Livestock and Dairy: Red meat, poultry, and dairy production forecasts show mixed trends, with adjustments for trade and disease impacts.
What is the latest wheat outlook from the WASDE report?
The WASDE report forecasts slightly higher U.S. wheat supplies for 2024/25, with ending stocks raised by 3 million bushels to 798 million, a 15% increase from the previous year. Imports are projected to rise by 5 million bushels, reaching 130 million, primarily due to increased Hard Red Spring wheat imports. Domestic use, including feed and residual use, remains unchanged at 120 million bushels, though there are offsetting by-class changes. Seed use is raised by 2 million bushels to 64 million, based on updated NASS estimates. Exports are steady at 850 million bushels, though there are offsetting by-class adjustments. The season-average farm price is reduced by $0.05 to $5.55 per bushel.
Globally, wheat ending stocks are forecast at 258.8 million tons, up 0.9 million from the prior report. Increased production in Syria and Pakistan offsets reductions in Uruguay. Global consumption is lowered to 801.9 million tons, with decreases for Turkey partially offset by Ukraine. World trade is revised down to 212.0 million tons, reflecting reduced exports from Russia and Ukraine. Russia’s export forecast drops by 1.0 million tons to 46.0 million tons, significantly below last year’s record of 55.5 million tons.
How does the WASDE report update coarse grain production and trade?
For U.S. corn, the WASDE report projects 2024/25 production at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million bushels due to a reduced yield estimate of 179.3 bushels per acre. Harvested area is slightly increased by 0.2 million acres. Feed and residual use is reduced by 50 million bushels to 5.8 billion, while exports are lowered by 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion. Total corn use is reduced by 75 million bushels, leading to lower ending stocks, which are now forecast at 1.44 billion bushels. The season-average corn price is raised by $0.15 to $4.25 per bushel.
Globally, coarse grain production is projected to decline by 4.8 million tons to 1.494 billion. However, foreign corn production is forecast higher due to increases in China, Ghana, and Russia. China’s corn production reaches a record 294.9 million tons. Major trade adjustments include reduced corn exports for the U.S. and Brazil, while imports are raised for Turkey and lowered for China, South Korea, and Japan. Global corn stocks are forecast at 293.3 million tons, down 3.1 million.
What changes are highlighted for rice in the WASDE report?
The U.S. rice outlook for 2024/25 shows higher supplies and domestic use but lower ending stocks. Production is estimated at 222.1 million cwt, up 2.3 million cwt due to record yields in Texas and Missouri. The all-rice average yield reaches 7,748 pounds per acre, the highest on record, with long-grain varieties also achieving record yields. Domestic use is raised by 6.0 million cwt to 165.0 million, based on recent consumption data. Ending stocks are lowered by 3.2 million cwt to 43.5 million, though they remain 9% higher than the previous year.
Globally, rice supplies are projected to decline by 0.4 million tons to 712.4 million due to reduced production in China. World consumption is lowered slightly to 530.2 million tons, with reductions in Bangladesh and China. Global trade is revised down to 57.9 million tons, with decreased exports from Vietnam and Thailand. Ending stocks are forecast at 182.1 million tons, with reductions in China, Bangladesh, and the U.S., offset by increases for Vietnam, Nigeria, and Thailand.
What does the WASDE report say about oilseeds?
U.S. oilseed production for 2024/25 is estimated at 128.5 million tons, down 2.7 million tons due to lower soybean, peanut, rapeseed, and sunflower seed production. Soybean production is reduced to 4.4 billion bushels, with declines in key states like Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa. Harvested area is slightly reduced to 86.1 million acres, while yields are revised downward by 1.0 bushel to 50.7 bushels per acre. With unchanged exports and slightly higher imports, ending stocks are reduced by 90 million bushels to 380 million.
Globally, soybean production is lowered due to reduced outputs in Russia and China, partially offset by higher sunflower seed production in Russia. The global soybean crush is raised by 1.9 million tons to 349.3 million, reflecting strong soybean meal exports from Brazil. Global soybean ending stocks are revised down to 128.4 million tons due to reductions in the U.S. and Brazil.
What adjustments are made for livestock and dairy?
U.S. red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2024 are lowered, with reductions for beef, pork, broiler, and turkey. Egg production is also revised downward due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling. For 2025, beef production is expected to increase due to higher placements and heavier slaughter weights. Pork production is raised, while broiler and turkey outputs are lowered based on recent hatchery data and ongoing HPAI impacts.
Trade adjustments include increased beef imports for 2024 and 2025, while broiler and turkey export forecasts are reduced due to limited supplies and strong price competition. Hog prices for 2025 are raised, reflecting broader increases in cattle and poultry prices. Milk production for 2024 and 2025 is lowered due to slower growth in output per cow.
What are the latest updates on cotton in the WASDE report?
The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 reflects higher production and ending stocks but lower exports. Production is raised by 159,000 bales to 14.4 million, driven by increased yields in the Southeast and Delta regions. Exports are lowered by 300,000 bales to 11.0 million, while ending stocks are raised to 4.8 million bales. The season-average upland farm price is reduced to $0.65 per pound.
Globally, cotton production is raised by over 2 million bales, with significant contributions from China, Australia, and the U.S. Consumption is slightly higher, while ending stocks increase by nearly 1.9 million bales, driven by higher inventories in China, the U.S., and India.
Read the entire WASDE Report here.
7 Comments