Key Takeaways from the WASDE Report
- Wheat: U.S. ending stocks lowered to 794 million bushels, while global production rises slightly according to February’s WASDE Report.
- Corn: No changes in U.S. outlook; global production cut due to Argentina and Brazil yield reductions.
- Rice: U.S. ending stocks reach a 10-year high, with lower exports.
- Soybeans: Global production lowered as Argentina and Paraguay struggle with drought conditions.
- Sugar: U.S. supply reduced due to lower cane sugar production and imports.
- Livestock & Dairy: Beef production increased, while turkey and egg output cut due to HPAI-related culling.
- Cotton: Global production increased with a larger Chinese crop.
WASDE Report: Wheat Outlook for 2024/25
The February 2024 WASDE report projects higher domestic wheat use, leading to lower U.S. ending stocks:
- Food use raised by 4 million bushels to 970 million, based on higher flour milling activity.
- Ending stocks cut to 794 million bushels, but still 14% higher than last year.
- Season-average farm price unchanged at $5.55 per bushel.
Globally, wheat supplies increase slightly to 1,061.3 million tons, led by higher production in Kazakhstan and Argentina.
- World trade forecast reduced by 3.0 million tons, with lower exports from the EU, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey.
- China’s wheat imports cut to 8.0 million tons, marking a five-year low.
WASDE Report: Corn Outlook Affected by South American Weather
The U.S. corn outlook remains unchanged, with the season-average farm price raised by 10 cents to $4.35 per bushel.
Global corn production is lowered by 1.8 million tons, reflecting:
- Yield declines in Argentina and Brazil, where heat and dryness impacted early-planted crops.
- Lower exports expected from Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa.
- Corn imports cut for China, but raised for Vietnam and Chile.
Global ending stocks fall to 290.3 million tons, a 3.0 million-ton decline from last month’s WASDE report.
WASDE Report: Rice Stocks Reach a 10-Year High in the U.S.
The U.S. rice outlook projects higher ending stocks and lower exports:
- Imports raised, driven by increased Thai aromatic long-grain shipments.
- Exports cut by 4.0 million cwt, reflecting slow rough rice sales.
- Ending stocks up 18% YoY to 47.0 million cwt, the highest in a decade.
Globally, rice supplies decrease slightly, while trade and consumption rise:
- India’s exports raised to 22.0 million tons, near a record high.
- Ending stocks lowered, mainly due to reductions in India and Sri Lanka.
Soybeans & Oilseeds: Lower Global Production and Stocks
The U.S. soybean outlook remains unchanged, but the season-average price drops by 10 cents to $10.10 per bushel.
Global production is lowered, as:
- Argentina and Paraguay experience persistent drought conditions.
- Brazil’s soybean forecast remains at 169.0 million tons, as improved conditions in the Center-West offset dryness in the South.
With global soybean crush increasing in Brazil, ending stocks are reduced by 4.0 million tons to 124.3 million, primarily on lower inventories in Argentina and Brazil.
Sugar & Cotton: Lower U.S. Sugar Supply, Global Cotton Output Increases
Sugar Outlook
- U.S. sugar production lowered, with Florida’s cane sugar output down by 55,131 STRV.
- Imports reduced by 95,862 STRV, reflecting higher TRQ shortfalls.
- Domestic sugar deliveries lowered, reducing ending stocks to 1.91 million STRV.
Cotton Outlook
- U.S. cotton mill use lowered, increasing ending stocks to 39% of total use.
- Season-average farm price reduced to 63.5 cents per pound.
- China’s cotton crop increased by 1 million bales, driving a global production increase.
Livestock, Poultry & Dairy: Key Changes in the WASDE Report
- Beef production forecast raised, driven by higher placements and heavier weights.
- Pork production increased, with higher carcass weights offsetting slower Q1 slaughter rates.
- Turkey and egg production lowered, as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) impacts flocks.
Cattle prices increased for all four quarters, driven by strong beef demand.
Egg prices raised, as the flock recovers from HPAI-related losses.
Conclusion: WASDE Report Signals Mixed Outlook for 2024/25
The 2024/25 WASDE report presents a mixed picture for global agriculture. While U.S. rice and sugar stocks are rising, global wheat, corn, and soybean stocks are tightening due to weather-related production cuts in key South American regions. As global markets adjust, trade flows and commodity prices will remain volatile in the coming months.
Read the complete WASDE report here.
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