Key Takeaways
- A Chungnam-led academic study finds that stronger adaptive capacity reduces migration during drought and armed conflict in Africa.
- Agricultural productivity is identified as a critical factor in moderating migration pressures.
- The research analyzes country- and grid-level data from 1995 to 2015.
- Climate adaptation acts as a moderating force rather than a standalone solution.
- Findings support policy links between agriculture, resilience, and social stability.
Chungnam Research Examines Climate, Conflict, and Migration in Africa
A peer-reviewed study led by Professor Hyun Kim of Chungnam National University examines how climate adaptation—particularly in agriculture—can moderate migration driven by drought and armed conflict across Africa. The research was published online on November 25, 2025, in the journal Sustainable Development and analyzes both country-level and grid-level data covering a 20-year period from 1995 to 2015.
Africa continues to experience rising internal migration and displacement linked to prolonged droughts and persistent armed conflicts. While previous research has established a strong relationship between these stressors and population movement, the Chungnam-led study addresses a gap in empirical evidence by evaluating whether adaptive capacity can reduce migration pressures under crisis conditions.
Agricultural Productivity Central to Chungnam University Study Findings
Adaptation as a Moderating Force
The study finds that drought and armed conflict independently increase migration risk. However, their combined impact is significantly reduced in countries with higher adaptive capacity. Rather than eliminating migration, adaptation moderates its scale during periods of environmental and security stress.
Adaptive capacity was measured using indicators including agricultural output, access to water, health system strength, infrastructure, and disaster preparedness. Among these, agricultural productivity played a particularly prominent role.
“Agricultural productivity plays a particularly important role,” said Professor Hyun Kim of Chungnam National University. “Higher crop yields are consistently associated with lower migration, highlighting how food security and livelihoods help stabilize communities during climate and conflict-related shocks.”
Chungnam-Led Analysis Uses Multi-Source Global Data
The researchers combined several international datasets to assess migration drivers and adaptive capacity. Migration data were sourced from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, including internally displaced persons and asylum seekers. Armed conflict records were drawn from the Uppsala Conflict Data Project, drought data from the EM-DAT disaster database, and adaptation indicators from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index.
Migration was quantified as annual population movements originating within countries, enabling analysis of how environmental and conflict-related shocks interact with adaptive capacity over time.
Policy Implications Highlighted by Chungnam Researchers
Relevance for Climate, Agriculture, and Stability Policies
The moderating effect of adaptation was most pronounced during crisis periods when drought and armed conflict overlapped, suggesting that climate adaptation policies are especially critical under compounded stress conditions.
“Climate adaptation is often framed as a long-term environmental strategy,” Professor Kim noted. “Our findings show it also has immediate social benefits by reducing migration pressures stemming from both climate hazards and armed conflict.”
The study’s conclusions align with several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, including Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3), Reduced Inequalities (SDG 10), Climate Action (SDG 13), and Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions (SDG 16).
Broader Implications Beyond Africa
Although the study focuses on Africa, the authors state that the findings have broader implications for global discussions on climate finance, climate justice, and migration governance. As climate risks intensify worldwide, the Chungnam-led research underscores the importance of prioritizing agricultural adaptation as part of integrated strategies to reduce displacement and strengthen resilience in vulnerable regions.
