Key Takeaways
- ENSO predictability, particularly for Central Pacific (CP) ENSO, is projected to decrease under global warming.
- The strength of the spring predictability barrier for CP ENSO is expected to increase by 25% in the future.
- Faster surface ocean warming in the tropical Pacific reduces its predictability.
- The predictability of Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO is not expected to change under global warming.
- These findings have significant implications for future climate predictions and forecasting.
ENSO Predictability Expected to Decline in a Warming Climate
A recent study by Chen et al. (2024) highlights concerns about the future predictability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a crucial climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. The research indicates that global warming may significantly reduce the predictability of the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO, posing challenges for climate prediction models.
Predictability and Climate Models
ENSO is a primary driver of interannual climate variability, affecting weather patterns globally. Predicting these events is critical for preparing for associated impacts, such as altered precipitation and temperature patterns. The study utilized Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to assess how global warming might affect it.
Decreased in Predictability
The researchers found a robust decrease in the persistence and predictability of CP ENSO under future warming scenarios. “Our analysis shows that the strength of the spring predictability barrier will increase by 25%,” Chen et al. state. The spring predictability barrier refers to a period during which its predictions become particularly challenging.
The reduced predictability is attributed to the faster warming of the surface ocean in the tropical Pacific. This accelerated warming enhances the thermodynamical damping rate on it, making it more difficult to forecast these events accurately. “The faster warming over the surface ocean leads to enhanced thermodynamical damping, which in turn reduces the predictability of CP ENSO,” the study explains.
Its Stability
In contrast, the predictability of Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events is not projected to change significantly under global warming. This stability suggests that while some of its aspects may become more difficult to predict, others will remain relatively unchanged. “Our results indicate that the predictability of EP ENSO will remain stable despite the changes in CP ENSO predictability,” the researchers note.
Implications for Climate Predictions
These findings have far-reaching implications for future climate predictions. As CP ENSO predictability decreases, it will become more challenging to forecast related climate impacts accurately. This uncertainty could affect various sectors, including agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness, which rely on accurate climate forecasts to make informed decisions.
Read the complete study here.
Photo by Leon Overweel on Unsplash
