Key Takeaways
- Farmer Sentiment declined modestly in December as long-term expectations softened.
- The Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 3 points to 136.
- Concerns about U.S. soybean export competitiveness, particularly versus Brazil, increased.
- Farm financial performance expectations remained largely stable.
- Confidence in tariffs weakened, while optimism about the country’s direction improved.
Farmer Sentiment Softens In December Barometer Reading
Farmer Sentiment edged lower in December as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 3 points to a reading of 136. The survey was conducted from December 1–5, 2025, and the decline was primarily attributed to a weakening in producers’ long-term outlook rather than changes in current conditions.
The Future Expectations Index fell 4 points to 140, while the Current Conditions Index held steady at 128. The results suggest that while farmers’ near-term views remain stable, uncertainty about longer-term market dynamics is influencing overall sentiment.
Long-Term Outlook Weighs On Farmer Sentiment
A key factor affecting Farmer Sentiment in December was rising concern about the global competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports. As Brazil continues to expand its role in international markets, U.S. producers expressed growing caution about long-term export prospects.
Michael Langemeier, principal investigator for the barometer and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, said uncertainty around agricultural trade and global competition continues to shape how farmers view the future. He noted that even when farm-level expectations remain steady, producers remain hesitant about long-term decisions.
Farm Financial Performance And Investment Expectations
Producers’ expectations for their own farm financial performance were largely unchanged in December. The Farm Financial Performance Index increased slightly, rising 2 points to 94, indicating that more producers expect their financial results to be similar to last year.
The Farm Capital Investment Index also increased by 2 points to 58. Despite this modest improvement, 60 percent of respondents said December was a poor time to make large farm investments, reflecting continued caution in capital spending decisions.
Export Outlook Highlights Soybean-Specific Concerns
When asked about the long-term outlook for U.S. agricultural exports in general, producers offered one of their more optimistic readings of the year, with only 5 percent expecting exports to decline over the next five years.
However, Farmer Sentiment shifted when the focus turned to soybeans. Thirteen percent of corn and soybean growers said they expect U.S. soybean exports to decrease over the next five years, up from 8 percent in November. At the same time, the share expecting soybean exports to increase fell from 47 percent to 39 percent.
Concerns about Brazil’s competitiveness were widespread, with 84 percent of corn and soybean producers saying they were concerned or very concerned, including 45 percent who said they were very concerned.
Farmland Values Remain A Bright Spot For Farmer Sentiment
Despite broader uncertainty, farmers remained optimistic about farmland values. Both the Short-Term and Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations indices rose by 1 point in December.
The short-term index reached 117, standing 11 points above its September low and 7 points higher than a year earlier. The long-term index climbed to a record high of 166, now 20 points above its September low and 11 points above December 2024 levels.
Tariff Views Decline As Broader Optimism Improves
Confidence in tariffs as a tool to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy continued to decline. In December, 54 percent of producers said tariffs would have a positive effect, down from 59 percent in November. Uncertainty about the long-term impact of tariffs also increased.
At the same time, overall optimism about the country’s direction improved. Seventy-five percent of respondents said the United States was headed in the “right direction,” the highest level recorded since the question was added to the survey.
Overall, Farmer Sentiment in December reflected a balance between stable farm-level expectations and increasing concern about long-term competitiveness and trade dynamics.
Read the complete U.S. Farmer Sentiment barometer here.
