Key Takeaways
- The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer recorded its highest farmer sentiment reading since June.
- A 15-point jump in the Future Expectations Index reflects improved confidence in trade and commodity prices.
- Producers expect stronger financial performance despite caution about capital investment.
- Export optimism and long-term farmland value expectations reached multi-year highs.
- Most farmers still anticipate receiving support payments, though confidence in the likelihood has decreased.
Farmer Sentiment Climbs to 139 on Stronger Trade and Price Expectations
Farmer Sentiment improved significantly in November, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rising 10 points from October to 139—its highest reading since June. The month’s survey, conducted November 10–14, revealed that producers were notably more optimistic about the future, driven by higher commodity prices and stronger expectations for agricultural exports following the late-October U.S.–China trade announcement.
The Future Expectations Index increased sharply by 15 points to 144, while the Current Conditions Index dipped slightly to 128, suggesting improved longer-term confidence despite short-term uncertainty.
“Producers became more optimistic about U.S. agricultural trade prospects in November. That coincided with a rise in crop prices, which led to farmers' improved expectations for their farms' financial performance and an improvement in farmer sentiment,” said Michael Langemeier, principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
Stronger Crop Prices Lift Financial Expectations
The Farm Financial Performance Index rose 14 points to 92, bolstered by a rapid increase in corn and soybean prices. Eastern Corn Belt cash bids for fall delivery jumped 10% for corn and 15% for soybeans between mid-October and mid-November.
Twenty-four percent of producers now expect improved financial performance for the year, up from 16% in October. Gains in crop margins offset a weaker outlook in livestock, where falling cattle prices weighed on confidence.
Despite this, producers remained cautious about major investments. The Farm Capital Investment Index fell to 56, with only 16% of respondents stating that now is a good time for capital purchases.
Farmer Sentiment and Trade Confidence Strengthen
The survey showed a marked improvement in expectations for agricultural exports—a significant factor influencing farmer sentiment. Only 7% of respondents expect exports to weaken over the next five years, compared with 14% in October and 30% in March. Meanwhile, 47% of corn producers expect soybean exports to increase.
A majority of producers still expect supplementary support payments similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program, although certainty has declined. Only 16% said such payments were “very likely,” down substantially from 62% in September. Most respondents (58%) indicated they would use a payment to reduce debt.
Rising Farmland Values Add to Long-Term Optimism
Short-term farmland value expectations increased to 116 in November, while the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index climbed to a record 165. Nearly three-quarters of corn growers expect cash rental rates for 2026 to remain steady.
“The record-high reading of the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index indicates that farmers retain an optimistic long-run outlook for agriculture,” Langemeier said. “Although rising crop prices and improved trade prospects have bolstered optimism, producers remain cautious in their investment and production decisions, reflecting the short-term uncertainty they face.”
Producers Consider Adjusting 2026 Production Plans
Facing expected tight margins in 2026, many corn growers indicated they may reduce input costs. The most common planned changes include shifting to lower-cost seed traits and reducing phosphorus, with some also considering lower seeding rates and nitrogen cuts. Still, 40% of producers do not anticipate changing their production strategies.
Policy expectations also shaped Farmer Sentiment, with 59% believing upcoming U.S. tariffs will strengthen agriculture, although this figure has declined from last spring’s levels. The share of respondents uncertain about tariff impacts has increased to 17%.
Overall, two-thirds of producers said the U.S. is headed in the “right direction,” down slightly from 72% in October but consistent with the broader upward trend in farmer sentiment recorded in November.
Read the complete U.S. Farmer Sentiment barometer here.
