Key Takeaways
- The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 2 points to 119 in May, with the Current Conditions Index dropping 8 points to its lowest level since December 2024.
- High input costs were identified as the top concern by 51% of respondents, a record high for the survey, with 46% saying input costs are limiting improvements to their financial position in 2026.
- Only 14% of farmers said their operations are better off financially than a year ago, and the Farm Capital Investment Index dropped 3 points to 41, its lowest since September 2024.
- Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect net farm income to be reduced in 2026, while roughly half of corn producers expect break-even prices to rise by up to 6%.
- Farmland value expectations strengthened despite weaker current farmer sentiment, with the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rising from 121 to 130 and the long-term index increasing from 155 to 160.
Farmer Sentiment Slides as Input Costs Hit Record Concern Levels
The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 2 points to 119 in May, as mounting input cost concerns pushed several farmer sentiment indicators to new extremes. The Current Conditions Index dropped 8 points from April, reaching its lowest reading since December 2024, while the Future Expectations Index edged up 1 point. The survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the United States from May 11–15.
High input costs were flagged as the top concern by 51% of respondents — a record high in the survey’s history — with 46% saying those costs are directly limiting improvements to their financial position this year. Only 14% of farmers reported their operations are better off financially than a year ago, and 22% expect conditions to improve over the next 12 months. You can view the full Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer report on the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture website.
“The persistence of high input costs is especially challenging in an environment where many producers are already operating with tighter margins,” said Michael Langemeier, principal investigator and director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “When producers see fewer opportunities to improve their financial position despite strong operational management, it tends to weigh heavily on perceptions of current conditions and investment plans.”
Investment, Income, and Break-Even Outlook Weakens
The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 3 points to 41, its lowest level since September 2024, signaling reduced appetite for large capital expenditures. Approximately two-thirds of respondents expect their farm’s net income to decline in 2026. Among corn producers, nearly half expect break-even prices to rise by up to 6%, while 30% anticipate increases of 10% or more.
On labor, roughly 39% of respondents employ non-family workers, and 44% of those report difficulty hiring this year. Asked whether AI tools would improve their labor and equipment situation, 59% said no, 37% said it would help a little, and 4% said it would help a lot. Broader adoption of AI in agriculture remains limited among the survey’s respondents.
Farmland Values and Farmer Sentiment by Sector
Despite weaker current farmer sentiment, farmland value expectations strengthened. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose from 121 to 130, and the Long-Term Index increased from 155 to 160. Respondents cited alternative investments, interest rates, and net farm income as the primary drivers of farmland values. On the sector outlook, 31% of producers expect good times financially for crop producers over the next five years, compared with 68% for livestock producers. The share of respondents who believe the U.S. is on the “right direction” fell to 52%, the lowest level since the question was first introduced in July 2025.
For ongoing coverage of precision agriculture and agricultural commodities trends, visit iGrowNews. Track weekly movements in input costs and crop values with our agricultural commodities weekly update.
