In an ever-evolving global agricultural landscape, changes in climate, trade, and policies continue to reshape critical commodities’ production and consumption dynamics. This month’s WASDE data forecasts for 2023/24 regarding major agricultural commodities – wheat, coarse grains, rice, oil seeds, sugar, red meat & poultry, and cotton. Each section provides a detailed examination of supply, demand, and price trends domestically in the United States and internationally, delivering insights into the factors driving the agricultural market and its future direction.
In the U.S. wheat outlook for 2023/24, an increase in supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks have been observed, despite a two-year drought that led to the lowest Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat stocks in 16 years. Due to increased harvested area and yields, U.S. wheat production has risen to 1,739 million bushels. Internationally, the global wheat outlook shows decreased stocks due to reduced supplies, increased consumption, and lower exports, primarily in the EU, Argentina, and Canada.
The outlook for U.S. coarse grains, mainly corn, in 2023/24 shows a slight supply increase and ending stocks, resulting from a 55 million bushel rise in corn production. Globally, the production of coarse grains is expected to rise marginally to 1,513.4 million tons, despite indications of lower production, use, and slightly smaller stocks abroad.
The U.S. rice outlook for 2023/24, according to the June WASDE Data, predicts increased supplies, exports, and domestic use. This is driven primarily by increased production and recovery of medium- and short-grain rice in California from last year’s severe drought. Internationally, the 2023/24 rice outlook projects slightly higher supplies and consumption, increased trade, and more extensive stocks. World supplies are expected to rise, mainly due to increased U.S. production.
The U.S. oilseed production forecast for 2023/24 is 127.6 million tons, down 5.6 million from the previous month due to lower soybean and sunflower seed production. Despite higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2023/24 are expected to decrease, reducing soybean crush and exports. Globally, foreign oilseed production is anticipated to increase, but global soybean trade is expected to decrease.
The U.S. sugar supply for 2022/23 is projected to increase due to more significant imports and decreased production. For 2023/24, according to the June WASDE Data, the supply is expected to rise further due to higher beginning stocks, increased beet sugar production, and more significant imports. Despite severe drought conditions in Mexico, the 2023/24 sugar production is expected to remain steady.
Red Meat & Poultry
In 2023, the total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast is raised due to increased beef, broiler, and turkey production, while pork production is slightly lower. For 2024, beef and pork production is expected to reduce due to earlier cattle marketings and reduced farrowing.
The U.S. cotton projections for 2023/24 forecast lower exports and higher beginning and ending stocks due to lower 2022/23 disappearance. Despite a lower planted area, the harvested area is up due to above-median rainfall in West Texas. Globally, higher beginning stocks contribute to a 1.7-million-bale increase in ending stocks for the 2023/24 cotton balance sheet.