Key Takeaways
- Farmer sentiment rose in April as producers reported a more positive view of current and future conditions.
- The Ag Economy Barometer increased by 8 points to 148, with improvements seen in both the Current Conditions and Future Expectations indices.
- While interest in farm investments strengthened, a majority of farmers still view the current environment as unfavorable for large purchases.
- Short-term concerns remain, particularly related to tariffs and equipment availability.
- Despite these challenges, 70% of respondents expect tariffs to strengthen U.S. agriculture over the long term.
Farmer sentiment rises in April amid complex market backdrop
Farmer sentiment increased in April, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, which climbed to a reading of 148, up from 140 in March. Both the Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations posted gains, rising 9 and 8 points respectively.
The April survey was conducted from April 14-21 during a period of continued trade tensions with key partners such as Mexico and Canada.
“Producers seem to be gaining confidence in the ag economy’s longer-term outlook in spite of concerns they have about the impact of tariffs,” said Michael Langemeier, principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
Farmer Sentiment In April: Investment outlook improves but caution persists
The Farm Capital Investment Index rose to 61, a 7-point increase from March and its highest level since May 2021. The data shows that producers are somewhat more willing to consider large investments than in recent years. From May to October 2024, the index averaged 36, rising to 54 in the following six months.
However, most respondents still expressed caution. Nearly two-thirds indicated it is a bad time to invest, highlighting ongoing concerns about market conditions.
Equipment sales data reflects this cautious approach:
U.S. Equipment Sales – Q1 2025
| Equipment Type | Change vs. Q1 2024 |
|---|---|
| Tractors (100+ HP) | -19% |
| Combines | -38% |
Financial performance expectations steady
While investment sentiment showed improvement, farmers’ views on financial performance remained largely stable. The Farm Financial Performance Index dipped slightly by 1 point to 101. This marked the fourth consecutive month with the index above 100, suggesting that producers, on average, expect similar or slightly better financial results this year compared to last.
Views on land values and trade remain mixed
Expectations for farmland values declined, as the related index fell by 8 points to 110. The drop reflected fewer producers expecting higher land prices in the coming year.
Meanwhile, tariffs and trade policy remain important topics. More than half (56%) of producers said they expect tariffs to negatively affect farm income this year, and 53% said tariffs could make obtaining inputs more difficult. Fertilizer was the top concern, followed by parts, electronics, and crop chemicals.
Despite these issues, the long-term outlook on tariffs was more positive. Seventy percent of producers said they expect tariffs to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy over time.
Farmer sentiment shows cautious optimism
The latest data reflects a balance between short-term caution and longer-term optimism among U.S. farmers. While concerns remain about tariffs, input availability, and investment conditions, the improvement in farmer sentiment suggests that many producers are beginning to focus on future opportunities.
Read the complete barometer here.
