Key Takeaways from the June WASDE Report
- The June 2025 WASDE Report revised U.S. wheat ending stocks downward due to higher export projections, despite marginal gains in production.
- Wheat: U.S. ending stocks revised down to 898 million bushels; global stocks fall by 3 million tons.
- Corn: Minimal changes in the U.S.; global ending stocks lowered by 2.6 million tons.
- Rice: U.S. output revised downward; global ending stocks increased to 187.8 million tons.
- Cotton: U.S. production forecast reduced by 500,000 bales due to wet conditions in the Delta.
- Livestock and Dairy: Beef production lowered for 2025; milk and butter price forecasts raised for 2025 and 2026.
Wheat Outlook: Stocks Down Despite Higher Production
The WASDE Report for June 2025 revised U.S. wheat supplies slightly upward to 1.921 billion bushels, largely due to higher Soft Red Winter and White Winter production offsetting reductions in Hard Red Winter. However, strong early-season export sales—particularly for Hard Red Winter wheat—led to a 25 million bushel increase in projected exports, which brought ending stocks down to 898 million bushels. Despite the reduction, stocks remain 7% above last year. The average farm price for 2025/26 was revised upward by $0.10 to $5.40 per bushel.
Globally, wheat stocks are also down 3 million tons to 262.8 million. Reduced carryover in Russia and smaller stocks in the U.S., Iraq, and Turkey outweighed production increases in the EU and India.
Corn and Coarse Grains: Minor U.S. Adjustments, Global Stocks Decline
The corn outlook in the U.S. remains mostly stable, with unchanged area and yield projections according to the WASDE report. However, beginning and ending stocks were each reduced by 50 million bushels due to higher 2024/25 export expectations. The season-average farm price remains at $4.20 per bushel.
Internationally, global coarse grain production rose slightly, but ending stocks declined. Notable changes include increased foreign corn production and barley exports, while foreign corn stocks were revised down, particularly for China, South Africa, and India.
Rice: U.S. Production Cut, Global Surplus Builds
U.S. rice production was reduced by 4.9 million cwt to 214.4 million, primarily due to wet spring conditions affecting long-grain planting in the Delta. Imports were raised to a record 50.7 million cwt. Although domestic use was lowered, exports were increased by 1.0 million cwt. Ending stocks are down 0.9 million cwt to 46.6 million.
Globally, the report showed higher ending stocks, led by a 6 million ton increase in Indian rice output over two crop years. Global ending stocks rose to 187.8 million tons.
Cotton: Lower U.S. Output and Stocks Following Wet Spring According to WASDE
The WASDE Report revised U.S. cotton harvested area and yield projections down due to excessive rainfall in the Delta. Production is now forecast at 14.0 million bales, 500,000 lower than the previous estimate and among the smallest crops in a decade. Ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered by 900,000 bales to 4.3 million. The projected average price remains unchanged at $0.62/lb.
Globally, ending stocks are down nearly 1.6 million bales due to production declines in India, the U.S., and Pakistan, despite a 1-million-bale increase for China.
Livestock and Dairy: Beef Production Reduced, Dairy Prices Up
The 2025 red meat and poultry forecast was adjusted with lower beef and turkey production, while broiler output was slightly raised. Beef exports were revised upward on recent trade performance, while pork exports were lowered due to rising competition.
Milk production is expected to rise in both 2025 and 2026 due to increased cow inventories and per-cow yields. The all-milk price for 2025 is forecast at $21.95/cwt, with a slight decline to $21.30/cwt in 2026.
Read the complete WASDE Report here.
Discover the latest updates on agricultural commodities prices.
7 Comments