Key Takeaways
- The WASDE report forecasts higher ending stocks for wheat, corn, and rice in 2025/26, driven by strong production and moderate export prospects.
- U.S. corn production is projected at a record 15.8 billion bushels, with ending stocks at the highest level since 2019/20.
- Soybean crush is expected to rise, while exports fall amid global competition; ending stocks are projected lower.
- The 2025/26 WASDE outlook anticipates falling farm prices for corn, wheat, and rice.
- Global production for corn, wheat, and rice is projected to hit new records, while trade and stock trends diverge by crop.
WASDE Highlights: U.S. Wheat Stocks to Climb Amid Export Pressure
The May 2025 WASDE report projects U.S. wheat ending stocks to rise 10% year-over-year, reaching 923 million bushels, the highest since 2019. While production falls 3% due to lower harvested acreage, slightly improved yields and higher beginning stocks cushion the overall supply.
- Food use is projected to hit a record 977 million bushels, driving slight domestic demand growth.
- Exports decline to 800 million bushels, facing intensified global competition.
- The season-average farm price drops to $5.30 per bushel, reflecting increased supply and lower corn prices.
Globally, wheat production is forecast to hit 808.5 million metric tons, with gains in the EU, India, Russia, and Canada offsetting declines in the U.S. and Australia. Global wheat ending stocks inch up to 265.7 million tons.
WASDE Forecast: Record U.S. Corn Crop Drives Higher Stocks
The 2025/26 WASDE outlook places U.S. corn production at a record 15.8 billion bushels, supported by increased planting area (95.3 million acres) and a projected yield of 181.0 bushels per acre. As a result, total supplies are forecast to rise to 17.3 billion bushels.
- Ending stocks increase to 2.1 billion bushels, up 385 million from last year.
- Exports grow to 2.7 billion bushels, buoyed by competitive pricing.
- The average farm price is projected to drop 15 cents to $4.20 per bushel.
On a global scale, coarse grain production is expected to reach 1.265 billion tons, with notable increases for Ukraine, Argentina, and Brazil. However, global ending stocks will decline to 277.8 million tons, the lowest since 2013/14.
WASDE Oilseed Outlook: U.S. Soybean Stocks Tighten Despite Lower Exports
U.S. soybean production is projected to decrease slightly to 4.34 billion bushels, but strong demand from crushers is expected to tighten ending stocks to 295 million bushels.
- Soybean crush rises to 2.49 billion bushels.
- Exports fall to 1.815 billion, as South America boosts its market share.
- The average farm price increases to $10.25 per bushel.
Global oilseed production is forecast at 692.1 million tons, with Brazil leading the growth. Soybean exports worldwide are expected to increase by 4% to 188.4 million tons, though the U.S. share slips to 26%.
WASDE Projections: U.S. Rice and Sugar Ending Stocks Increase
In rice, production declines slightly, but record imports and higher beginning stocks drive total supplies to a new high of 313.5 million cwt. Ending stocks are projected at 47.5 million cwt, with domestic use rising to a record 172 million cwt.
- Exports fall to 94 million cwt due to global competition.
- The season-average price drops from $15.20 to $13.20 per cwt.
In sugar, U.S. production climbs to 9.285 million STRV, while refined import volumes decline. Ending stocks rise to 1.436 million STRV, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.6%.
Livestock & Dairy Outlook Adjusts for Trade and Disease Impact
Due to a suspension on Mexican cattle imports, U.S. beef production is forecast lower in 2026. In contrast, pork and poultry output are set to grow on stronger returns and improved animal health conditions.
- Egg production rebounds post-HPAI, but prices are forecast to decline.
- Milk production increases modestly; however, dairy prices fall due to stronger supply.
For 2025, meat exports are mixed. Beef exports are down due to tighter supply, while pork and broiler exports are revised upward on improved demand and trade performance.
Discover Agricultural Commodities prices here.
Discover the complete report here.
7 Comments