Key Takeaways
- The April WASDE report forecasts higher U.S. wheat imports and ending stocks, with reduced exports.
- Corn exports are projected higher, while ending stocks are expected to decline.
- Global rice production is revised up, making India the top global rice producer for 2024/25.
- U.S. soybean ending stocks are lowered despite increased crush and imports.
- Meat and dairy production estimates see mixed adjustments due to trade and inventory changes.
U.S. Wheat Outlook Adjusted in April WASDE Report
The April 2025 WASDE report projects a rise in U.S. wheat supplies driven by a 10 million bushel increase in imports, reaching 150 million bushels—the highest level since 2017/18. Domestic use is revised slightly downward due to reduced seed use, while feed and residual use remains unchanged at 120 million bushels.
U.S. wheat exports are lowered by 15 million bushels to 820 million, with reductions in Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter classes. Ending stocks are raised to 846 million bushels, up 27 million from the previous forecast and 22% above the previous year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.50 per bushel.
Globally, wheat supplies are reduced by 0.8 million tons to 1.0659 billion, with consumption and trade also revised downward. However, world ending stocks are increased to 260.7 million tons, largely due to higher stock levels in India, Russia, and the U.S.
Corn: U.S. Exports Up, Ending Stocks Down WASDE Reports
U.S. corn exports for 2024/25 are increased by 100 million bushels, while feed and residual use is lowered by 25 million bushels, reflecting data from the March Grain Stocks report. As a result, ending stocks are forecast at 1.5 billion bushels, down 75 million from last month. The season-average farm price remains at $4.35 per bushel.
Globally, coarse grain production is slightly reduced to 1.495 billion tons, but foreign corn production increases due to larger expected crops in the EU, Tanzania, and Honduras. Global ending stocks are now estimated at 287.7 million tons, down 1.3 million from March.
Global Rice Production Reaches Record Levels
The April WASDE report projects higher global rice production and trade, with India’s rice output reaching a record 147 million tons, making it the leading global rice producer for 2024/25. U.S. rice supplies are reduced slightly due to lower medium- and short-grain imports, while domestic use increases by 3 million cwt.
U.S. rice exports are reduced by 1.5 million cwt, primarily for long-grain varieties. U.S. ending stocks are lowered by 2.5 million cwt to 44.5 million cwt. Globally, rice ending stocks are raised to 183.2 million tons, with increases noted for Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Soybeans: Higher Crush, Lower Ending Stocks WASDE Reports
The U.S. soybean outlook includes a 10 million bushel increase in crush and slightly higher imports. Despite no change in exports, ending stocks are reduced by 5 million bushels to 375 million. The farm price remains at $9.95 per bushel.
On the global side, higher beginning stocks and lower production result in raised global ending stocks of 122.5 million tons, largely due to revisions for Brazil and the EU. Global vegetable oil production is reduced due to lower palm oil output despite increased soybean oil production.
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Adjustments
The WASDE report forecasts lower total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2025, with pork and turkey output reduced but beef and broiler production raised. Trade projections are mixed, with beef and pork exports lowered due to tariffs and price competition.
In dairy, 2025 milk production is raised on larger cow inventories. Prices for most dairy products are lowered, and the all-milk price is projected at $21.10 per cwt.
Cotton and Sugar: Minor Revisions
In cotton, U.S. exports are lowered by 100,000 bales to 10.9 million, with ending stocks raised accordingly. The upland farm price remains at 63 cents per pound.
U.S. sugar supply is increased by 143,758 short tons, driven by higher high-tier tariff imports. Ending stocks are revised up to 2.016 million STRV, with an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 16.2%.
Read the complete WASDE report here.
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