The USDA published its latest World Agriculture Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) For 2022/23:
The WASDE 2022/23 outlook for U.S. wheat suggests marginally increased supplies, reduced domestic use, stable exports, and elevated ending stocks. With supplies raised by 5 million bushels due to higher imports, domestic use is lowered by 25 million bushels due to reduced feed and residual use. Exports remain steady at 775 million bushels, and ending stocks increase by 30 million bushels to 598 million, though still 14% below last year’s levels. China’s wheat imports are expected to rise by 2.0 million tons to 12.0 million, while global ending stocks are predicted to decrease by 2.1 million tons to 265.1 million.
For the WASDE 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook, reductions to imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use are anticipated, with unchanged ending stocks. Global coarse grain production is forecasted to fall by 3.3 million tons to 1,436.3 million. Foreign corn production faces reductions due to decreased output in Argentina, the EU, Serbia, and Uruguay, partially offset by increased production in Russia. Significant global trade changes involve lowered corn exports for Argentina, Mexico, Burma, and Serbia, countered by increased exports for Ukraine and Russia. Global corn ending stocks are down 1.1 million from last month.
2022/23 U.S. rice outlook suggests smaller supplies, increased domestic and residual use, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. The import forecast is lowered by 2.0 million cwt to 40.0 million based on a slower-than-expected pace of long-grain imports. Exports are expected to increase by 2.0 million cwt to 61.0 million, thanks to significant February Census exports and additional sales to Iraq. The global outlook for rice entails lower supplies, increased trade, marginally higher use, and reduced ending stocks. Total ending stocks are projected to be 2.0 million tons lower, reaching 171.4 million.
The 2022/23 WASDE U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts remain unchanged, with a soybean oil price projection of 64.0 cents per pound. Global soybean production is reduced by 5.5 million tons to 369.6 million, with lower yields in Argentina and Uruguay offset by higher production in Brazil. Soybean crush and exports face a decline due to reduced supplies and a slow pace to date.
The U.S. sugar supply was raised by 176,692 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.637 million on increased imports from last month. As a result, ending stocks increased to 1.897 million STRV, resulting in a higher ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.89%. 75,000 MT has raised Mexico’s sugar production to 5.560 million.
The Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy forecast for 2023 has increased due to higher expected production across various sectors, higher export projections, and increased competition in dairy product markets. As a result, all milk prices have been projected higher at $20.65 per cwt.
Higher exports and lower ending stocks are projected for the 2022/23 U.S. cotton outlook, with production and domestic mill use remaining unchanged. As a result, ending stocks are anticipated to reach 4.1 million bales, or 29% of total disappearance. World cotton production is forecasted to be 829,000 bales higher, primarily due to increased output in India, while global consumption is expected to be 65,000 bales higher.