Key Takeaways
- U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks Decreased: WASDE Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 are lowered by 11 million bushels due to decreased supplies outweighing less use.
- Global Wheat Outlook: There’s an increase in global wheat supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Significant changes include higher beginning stocks for Ukraine and increased production in Russia, Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia.
- U.S. Corn Production Record High: The 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook anticipates greater production, increased usage, and higher ending stocks, with production estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels.
- Global Coarse Grain Production Increase: The forecast for global coarse grain production in 2023/24 is raised by 11.9 million tons, with notable changes in China, India, and Brazil.
- Varied Outlooks for Rice, Oilseeds, and Sugar: U.S. rice shows higher supplies and ending stocks, oilseed production is up with soybean leading the increase, and Mexico’s sugar production is projected lower with implications for U.S. imports.
WASDE January Estimates
Wheat: US Wheat Ending Stocks Set To Decrease
It is projected that the U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 will decrease by 11 million bushels due to reduced supplies and use. However, the global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is positive, with larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks compared to the previous month. Production changes have been observed in several countries, based mostly on updated government estimates. Russia, Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia have seen an increase in production, which has more than offset the decrease in production for China. World trade has increased by 2.4 million tons to 209.5 million, thanks to higher exports by Ukraine, Russia, Australia, and Canada, which have more than compensated for the decrease in exports for the EU.
Coarse Grains: Record Production Of Corn
According to the latest estimates, the US is expected to produce a record 15.3 billion bushels of corn for the 2023/24 season. This is due to an increase in the use of FSI and higher ending stocks. The total corn use is now projected to be 14.6 billion bushels, with ethanol use being increased to 5.4 billion bushels. The global production of coarse grain is also expected to rise. As a result, corn prices have been lowered to $4.80 per bushel and there is a 31 million bushel increase in the corn stocks.
Rice: Slight Increase In Supplies
According to the rice outlook for the US in 2023/24, there will be a slight increase in supplies, domestic use will remain unchanged, exports will decrease, and ending stocks will be higher. The estimated all-rice production is 218.3 million cwt, with an average yield of 7,649 pounds per acre. The projected world-ending stocks have been lowered by 0.5 million tons to 167.3 million.
Oilseeds: Increase In Soybean, Rapeseed, and Sunflower Seed Production
It is estimated that the US oilseed production for the year 2023/24 will be around 122.4 million tons, with an increase in the production of soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower seed crops. The soybean production for the year is estimated to be 4.2 billion bushels, with the majority of the increase coming from Illinois, Missouri, and North Dakota. On a global scale, the soybean production for 2023/24 is estimated to be around 399.0 million tons. The production forecast for Argentina, the United States, Russia, China, Paraguay, and Bolivia is higher than the previous year. Additionally, the global soybean exports for 2023/24 have been increased to 170.9 million tons, with Paraguay and Russia expected to export more soybeans.
Sugar: Mexico’s Production To Be Lower Compared To The Previous Year
According to recent projections on the WASDE report, the sugar production in Mexico for the year 2023/24 is expected to be lower compared to the previous year. This is primarily due to the severe drought conditions that are even worse than last year. Additionally, the sugar yields and recovery rates are also significantly lower than the previous ten-year averages. The total production is expected to include 11.8 percent of low-polarity sugar, which is produced for export to the United States. On the other hand, the sugar supply in the US is expected to increase for the year 2023/24 due to the increase in production and imports.
Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Production To Increase in Q4 2023
The WASDE projects that the production of red meat and poultry will increase in the fourth quarter of 2023, along with an expected rise in egg production. For 2024, the beef forecast is higher, but pork production is expected to slow down. Additionally, broiler production is expected to be higher in the first half of 2024, while turkey production is expected to be lower. Exports of beef and pork are projected to increase, while turkey exports are expected to decrease. However, milk production is expected to be lower, which could have an impact on the price of milk.
Cotton: US Cotton Forecast Lower Production, Export & Ending Stocks
The U.S. cotton forecasts for 2023/24 show lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Global ending stocks for cotton are projected to be higher, driven by increased beginning stocks and production, along with reduced consumption.
The 2023/24 agricultural outlook presents a complex tapestry of trends across critical sectors such as wheat, corn, rice, oilseeds, sugar, and cotton. These mixed trends reflect the dynamic nature of the agricultural industry, influenced by various global factors and regional shifts. As stakeholders in agribusiness navigate these changes, understanding these trends becomes crucial for informed decision-making and strategic planning in the ever-evolving landscape of agriculture.
Read the complete WASDE report here.
Read last month’s report here.
Photo by Dan Meyers on Unsplash
