Key Takeaways
- The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer US Farmer Sentiment dropped 23 points in January to 113.
- Both current conditions and future expectations weakened among U.S. producers.
- Farm financial stress increased, with more producers reporting carryover debt.
- Concerns about agricultural exports, particularly soybeans, intensified.
- Long-term farmland value expectations declined after reaching a record high in December.
Farmer Sentiment Weakens at Start of 2025
Farmer sentiment declined sharply in January as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 23 points from December to a reading of 113. The decline reflected increased pessimism about both current farm conditions and the future outlook for U.S. agriculture.
The Current Conditions Index dropped 19 points to 109, while the Future Expectations Index declined 25 points to 115. The most notable shift was in producers’ long-term outlook for U.S. agriculture, with expectations for the next five years falling to their lowest level since September 2024.
The survey was conducted from Jan. 12–16, coinciding with the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on Jan. 12.
Farm Financial Conditions Continue to Deteriorate Farmers' Sentiment
Rising Debt and Tighter Investment Plans
Producers reported worsening financial conditions compared with a year earlier. Fifty percent of respondents said their farms were worse off financially than a year ago. Looking ahead, 30% of producers expect financial performance to weaken over the next 12 months, compared with 20% who anticipate improvement.
Reflecting this cautious outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 11 points in January to 47, its lowest level since October 2024. Only 4% of respondents said they plan to increase farm machinery purchases in the coming year.
“What stands out this month is the growing number of producers who report that higher operating-loan needs stem from carrying over unpaid debt from the previous year,” said Michael Langemeier, principal investigator for the barometer and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “That points to increasing financial pressure heading into the year ahead.”
Operating Loans and Export Concerns Increase
Exports and Global Competition in Focus
Since 2020, the January survey has tracked expectations for operating loans. In 2025, 21% of respondents said they expect to need a larger operating loan, up from 18% a year earlier. Among those expecting an increase, 31% cited unpaid operating debt from the prior year as the primary reason, continuing an upward trend from recent years.
Producers also expressed growing concern about agricultural exports. Sixteen percent of respondents said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to decline over the next five years, up from 5% in December. Among corn and soybean producers, 21% expect soybean exports to decline, compared with 13% the previous month. Competition from Brazil remains a key concern, with 80% of corn and soybean producers reporting concern about U.S. competitiveness.
Farmland Values and Broader Economic Outlook
Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Caution
Producers remained optimistic about short-term farmland values, with the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index unchanged at 117. However, the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell 14 points to 152 after reaching a record high in December. Respondents cited alternative investments, net farm income, and interest rates as key influencing factors.
Producers’ broader view of the U.S. economy also softened. In January, 62% said the economy is headed in the “right direction,” down from 75% in December.
Read the complete U.S. Farmer Sentiment barometer here.
