Agricultural Commodities Market Update (May 18 – 25, 2026)

Key Takeaways

• Grain markets softened broadly this week among agricultural commodities, with corn (-2.82%), wheat (-2.63%), soybeans (-1.40%), oats (-1.81%), and barley (-7.99%) all retreating — driven by profit-taking, demand uncertainty, and easing supply-risk sentiment as US–Iran diplomatic talks advanced toward a potential Strait of Hormuz reopening framework.
• Wheat held at 647.04 USd/Bu (-2.63% weekly) despite pulling back from recent highs; its 18.99% year-over-year gain remains one of the strongest in the cereal complex, underpinned by tight US production forecasts and persistent global wheat trade disruptions.
• Orange juice surged 6.96% on the week to 171.45 USd/Lbs, reversing recent weakness as tight Florida crop supply reasserted itself — though the commodity remains deeply negative year-over-year (-38.32%), reflecting the multi-season structural decline in US citrus output.
• Rice and Tea posted the strongest monthly gains in the entire complex — rice +20.90% monthly to $12.985/cwt and tea +21.26% monthly to INR 220.62/Kg — as Asian supply tightness and seasonal demand spikes drove sharp near-term price appreciation.
• Soft commodities under sustained pressure: coffee now down 24.30% year-over-year and cocoa down 61.33% YoY, with both markets weighed by demand destruction, currency dynamics, and an unwinding of speculative positions built during the 2024–25 supply shock cycle.
• Input cost relief is emerging: urea dropped to $502.50/T and DAP eased to $785.00/T as Hormuz diplomatic progress filters into fertilizer markets — see the full iGrowNews fertilizer prices weekly update for detail.

Agricultural commodity markets posted a mixed-to-softer performance for the week ending May 25, 2026. Row crop markets gave back recent gains as easing geopolitical risk premiums reduced speculative support, while select soft commodities and minor crops diverged sharply. The most notable development was the continued advance in US–Iran diplomatic talks, with a three-stage Hormuz reopening framework reported to be in final drafting — a structural shift that, if confirmed, will reshape input cost trajectories for global agriculture over Q3 2026. All price data is sourced from Trading Economics. For fertilizer price impacts, see the iGrowNews fertilizer prices weekly update; for agribusiness equity impacts, see the agriculture stocks performance tracker. The latest USDA supply and demand projections are covered in the iGrowNews WASDE analysis.

Agricultural Commodities by Group: Week of May 18–25, 2026

Cereals & Grains

The grain complex moved broadly lower this week as diplomatic optimism around a potential Strait of Hormuz reopening softened supply-risk premiums built up over the prior month. Wheat remained the relative outperformer on a year-over-year basis. Rice was the standout exception, surging on Asian seasonal demand and tight supply.

Oilseeds & Vegetable Oils

Oilseed markets were mixed. Canola and rapeseed posted modest gains, while soybeans continued their pullback. Palm oil recovered on Malaysian export demand. Sunflower oil ticked up slightly on the week.