FAO Warns Strait of Hormuz Closure Could Trigger Global Food Crisis Within Six to 12 Months

Key Takeaways

• FAO warns the Strait of Hormuz closure is a systemic agrifood shock that could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months if unaddressed.
• The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third consecutive month in April, with the shock unfolding in stages: energy, fertiliser, seeds, lower yields, commodity prices, then food inflation.
• FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero is calling for urgent action by governments, international financial organisations, the private sector, and UN agencies to build country resilience before the window for preventive action closes.
• Short-term priorities include securing alternative trade corridors, avoiding export restrictions, and targeting social protection at vulnerable smallholders through digital registries rather than blanket subsidies.
• Long-term recommendations cover diversifying ports and logistics, building regional reserves, expanding precision agriculture, and developing innovation funds for green ammonia, biostimulants, and nutrient-efficiency technologies, with El Nino flagged as a compounding risk.

FAO Warns Strait of Hormuz Closure Could Trigger Global Food Crisis Within Six to 12 Months

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents the beginning of a systemic agrifood shock, not a temporary shipping disruption, with the potential to trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months. FAO is calling for immediate, coordinated intervention across governments, international financial institutions, the private sector, and UN agencies to build resilience before the window for preventive action closes.

The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third consecutive month in April, driven by elevated energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. FAO describes the shock as unfolding in sequential stages: energy, fertiliser, seeds, lower yields, commodity price increases, and ultimately food inflation.

Alternative Routes and Export Restraint Are Immediate Priorities

FAO Agrifood Economics Division Director David Laborde has pointed to alternative corridors via the eastern Arabian Peninsula, western Saudi Arabia, and the Red Sea as partial mitigants, though their limited capacity makes it essential that major producers avoid export restrictions. Safeguarding humanitarian food flows is described as a non-negotiable priority throughout the crisis.

“The time has come to start seriously thinking about how to increase the absorption capacity of countries, how to increase their resilience to this choke, so that we start to minimize the potential impacts,” said Maximo Torero, FAO Chief Economist.

FAO Policy Recommendations: Short, Medium, and Long Term

Short-term priorities include securing alternative trade corridors, exempting food aid from trade curbs, promoting intercropping of cereals and legumes to reduce fertiliser dependency, activating social protection programmes, and directing targeted support to vulnerable rural households through digital registries rather than blanket subsidies.

Medium-term recommendations include expanding affordable emergency credit for farmers with harvest-aligned repayment schedules, using mobile money systems for rapid disbursement, avoiding biofuel demand increases that compete with food supply, and reactivating the Food Import Financing Facility's food shock window used in 2022.

Over the long term, FAO calls for diversifying ports, corridors, and storage globally, building regional reserves, expanding precision agriculture and electrified machinery, and developing innovation funds for green ammonia, biostimulants, and crop genetics. FAO also flags the high probability of a concurrent El Nino event as a compounding risk, making early warning systems and pre-emptive monitoring especially urgent.