Key Takeaways:
- What is driving the shift? Potential mass deportations under the new administration could drastically reduce the agricultural workforce, as outlined in Pitchbook’s 2025 Industrial Outlook.
- What technologies will rise? AI-driven robots, IoT sensors, satellite imagery analytics, and farm management software.
- Economic impact? Agricultural production could decline by $30 billion to $60 billion without automation, according to Pitchbook’s findings.
- Who benefits? Farmers adopting automation, agtech investors, and technology developers.
- What’s next? Increased government support and accelerated adoption of advanced farm technologies, a trend underscored by Pitchbook.
US Agriculture Faces Seismic Shift with Potential Labor Shortages
The 2025 Industrial Outlook by Pitchbook highlights a major trend shaping the future of US agriculture: the anticipated mass deportation of undocumented workers under the new presidential administration. This policy could result in the removal of nearly 45% of the agricultural workforce—about 950,000 workers—creating an urgent need for automation and advanced agricultural technologies.
Key agricultural states such as California and Wisconsin are expected to be disproportionately affected, with up to 75% of California’s farmworkers living in the US illegally. The resulting labor shortage threatens to significantly reduce productivity and drive up production costs.
Technologies Poised for Growth
As farmers look for solutions to mitigate labor shortages, several technologies are expected to see rapid adoption:
- AI-driven robots – Performing planting, harvesting, and monitoring tasks traditionally done by human labor.
- Satellite imagery analytics – Offering precise crop health monitoring and resource optimization.
- IoT sensors – Delivering real-time data on soil, temperature, and moisture to enhance farm efficiency.
- Farm management software – Integrating data from multiple sources to guide resource allocation and decision-making.
The agricultural robot market, valued at $14.7 billion in 2024, is projected to grow at a 23% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with demand expected to surge due to the labor crisis, as stated in Pitchbook’s analysis.
Economic Pressure and Policy Response
Estimates suggest that if the deportation plan is executed, agricultural production could decline by $30 billion to $60 billion. Faced with this economic pressure, farms will need to invest heavily in automation. In 2022, approximately 70% of specialty crop growers reported automation investments averaging $450,000 to $500,000 annually.
To alleviate the burden, the US government is likely to introduce subsidies, tax incentives, and direct funding to encourage automation adoption, reflecting trends identified in Pitchbook’s 2025 Industrial Outlook.
Read the complete report by Pitchbook here.
