Key Takeaways
- U.S. wheat production for 2026/27 is projected at 1,561 million bushels, down 424 million from last year, with the all-wheat yield forecast at 47.5 bushels per acre — 5.8 bushels below last year's record — pushing the season-average farm price up $1.50 to $6.50 per bushel, according to the latest WASDE report.
- U.S. corn production for 2026/27 is projected at 16.0 billion bushels, down 6% year-over-year, with planted area declining to 95.3 million acres and yield projected at 183.0 bushels per acre; ending stocks would fall to 12.1% of use, the lowest since recent averages, with the farm price up 25 cents to $4.40 per bushel.
- U.S. soybean production for 2026/27 is projected at 4.435 billion bushels, up 173 million from last year, with the season-average price rising to $11.40 per bushel from $10.40; soybean oil use for biofuel is forecast at 17.8 billion pounds, up 3.6 billion, driven by EPA Renewable Volume Obligations.
- Global wheat production is forecast at 819.1 million tons, down from last year's record 843.8 million, with the largest reductions for the United States, EU, Argentina, and Australia; global corn ending stocks are projected at 277.5 million tons, the lowest since 2013/14.
- U.S. all-milk price in 2027 is forecast at $20.95 per cwt, with milk production expected to rise on higher output per cow; beef production is forecast lower in both 2026 and 2027 as herd rebuilding limits fed cattle availability, while pork and broiler production are forecast higher.
The USDA's May 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-671) projects tighter U.S. and global grain supplies for the 2026/27 marketing year, with wheat and corn production both declining year-over-year, soybeans expanding, and price increases forecast across the major row crops. The report also covers rice, sugar, oilseeds, and livestock and dairy outlooks through 2027.
WASDE May 2026: U.S. and Global Wheat Outlook
U.S. all-wheat production for 2026/27 is projected at 1,561 million bushels, down 424 million from last year, with both harvested area and yield declining. The all-wheat yield of 47.5 bushels per acre is 5.8 bushels below 2025/26's record. The first survey-based winter wheat forecast is down 25% to 1,048 million bushels, primarily reflecting sharply reduced Hard Red Winter production. U.S. wheat exports are projected at 775 million bushels, down 135 million from revised 2025/26 levels, on reduced exportable supplies and higher U.S. prices. Ending stocks are projected 18% lower at 762 million bushels, with the season-average farm price rising $1.50 to $6.50 per bushel.
Globally, wheat production is forecast at 819.1 million tons, down from last year's record 843.8 million, with the United States, EU, Argentina, and Australia accounting for the largest reductions. Global ending stocks are projected down 4.2 million tons to 275.0 million.
Corn: Lower U.S. Production, Global Stocks at Decade Low
U.S. corn production for 2026/27 is projected at 16.0 billion bushels, down 6% from last year, on a 3.5 million acre reduction in planted area to 95.3 million acres and a trend yield of 183.0 bushels per acre. Total corn supplies are 18.1 billion bushels, down 2%. Ending stocks are projected at 12.1% of use, down from 13.0%, with the season-average farm price rising 25 cents to $4.40 per bushel. U.S. corn exports are forecast down 5% to 3.2 billion bushels.
Globally, corn production is forecast at 1.295 billion metric tons, down 17.3 million tons from last year's record, with the largest reductions for the United States, Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, Ukraine, and Turkey. World corn ending stocks are projected at 277.5 million tons, the lowest since 2013/14, as global consumption of 1.315 billion metric tons exceeds production by 19.4 million tons.
Soybeans: Higher Production, Biofuel Demand Drives Crush
U.S. soybean production for 2026/27 is projected at 4.435 billion bushels, up 173 million on trend yield and higher harvested area. Soybean crush is forecast at 2.750 billion bushels, up 120 million, on strong biofuel demand. Soybean oil use for biofuel is projected at 17.8 billion pounds, up 3.6 billion from 2025/26, supported by EPA Renewable Volume Obligations. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 310 million bushels, down 30 million, with the season-average price rising to $11.40 per bushel from $10.40. Globally, oilseed production is forecast up 19.6 million tons to 718.1 million, driven by higher soybean, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed output.
Rice, Sugar, Livestock, and Dairy Highlights In The Latest WASDE Report
U.S. rice production for 2026/27 is projected at 175.2 million cwt, down 15% on lower harvested area, with the season-average farm price rising to $13.50 per cwt from $12.10. Globally, rice consumption is forecast at a record 541.4 million tons, exceeding production for the first time since 2015/16. U.S. beet and cane sugar production face headwinds from low planted area and Florida freeze impacts respectively. For livestock, beef production is forecast lower in both 2026 and 2027 as herd rebuilding limits fed cattle supply, while pork and broiler production are forecast higher. The all-milk price in 2027 is forecast at $20.95 per cwt, with milk production rising on higher output per cow.
Read the full USDA WASDE May 2026 report: WASDE-671, May 2026 (PDF).
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