Key Takeaways
- Urea dropped sharply to $359/T (-0.28% weekly, -36.74% monthly), now down 16.99% year-over-year as the June 17 US-Iran MoU accelerated the price decline that began with earlier diplomatic signals — yet renewed Hormuz disruptions on June 20 signal the Fertilizer correction may be fragile.
- DAP eased to $760/T (-0.98% weekly), giving back recent gains as partial strait reopening reduced immediate supply panic; the commodity remains up 6.29% year-over-year, reflecting lasting structural damage to Gulf phosphate export routes.
- Manganese softened to CNY 31.75/mtu (-5.08% monthly, +8.18% YoY), with weak Chinese industrial demand keeping the market rangebound despite firm medium-term supply fundamentals tied to steel and battery applications.
- Magnesium held at CNY 17,400/T (flat weekly and monthly), staying near recent stabilization levels with modest 2.05% annual gains as Chinese production provides steady supply against subdued demand.
- Phosphorus (CNY 1,027.50/T) and Soda Ash (CNY 1,166/T) both flat on the week, with Soda Ash extending its year-on-year decline to -10.58% as Chinese production overcapacity continues to suppress any meaningful price recovery.
Fertilizer prices for the week of June 15–22, 2026, moved broadly lower or sideways, with Urea leading the retreat to $359/T as markets priced in the June 17 US-Iran memorandum of understanding — a 60-day ceasefire framework mediated through Pakistan and Qatar that included provisions for Strait of Hormuz reopening. The relief, however, remains fragile: Iran announced a re-closure of the strait on June 20, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon as a ceasefire violation, though the US disputed the closure and reported continued vessel traffic.
Fertilizer Prices Data Table: Week of June 15–22, 2026
| Commodity | Unit | Price | Weekly % | Monthly % | YTD % | YoY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | USD/T | 359.00 | -0.28% | -36.74% | -7.12% | -16.99% |
| Di-ammonium (DAP) | USD/T | 760.00 | -0.98% | -4.10% | +21.60% | +6.29% |
| Magnesium | CNY/T | 17,400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | +4.50% | +2.05% |
| Manganese | CNY/mtu | 31.75 | 0.00% | -5.08% | — | +8.18% |
| Phosphorus | CNY/T | 1,027.50 | 0.00% | -0.05% | +0.24% | -1.18% |
| Soda Ash | CNY/T | 1,166.00 | 0.00% | -2.51% | -6.72% | -10.58% |
Source: Trading Economics. Data as of June 18, 2026.
Nitrogen & Urea: MoU Relief Accelerates the Slide — But New Risks Loom
Urea fell to $359/T as of June 18, down 0.28% from the prior session and down 36.74% over the past month — a dramatic reversal from the April peak above $850/T driven by the Hormuz closure. The June 17 MoU provided the latest catalyst for sellers, though the move also reflects a combination of factors that had already been softening prices in early June.
