Key Takeaways
- Urea climbed to $395/T (+4.77% weekly), its sharpest weekly gain in months among fertilizer prices, after France’s July 9 emergency nitrogen subsidy of €50–€70/t triggered a domestic buying frenzy that pushed French straight urea from €460/t to €495/t FCA within 48 hours.
- DAP rose to $765/T (+2.00% weekly, +22.40% YTD) as Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s sulfur export bans — now fully in effect — removed an estimated 4.2 million tons of annual sulfur supply needed to manufacture phosphoric acid and MAP.
- Sulfur (CNY 8,885.67/T) eased 2.74% on the week even as the Russia-Kazakhstan blockade took hold, though the commodity remains up a striking 285.61% year-over-year — the full weight of the new export bans has likely not yet cleared into this print.
- A dramatic escalation in the Middle East conflict over July 11–12 — including Iran’s declared “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz — adds a fresh, unresolved risk to fertilizer shipping lanes; the price impact remains TBD pending how the standoff develops.
- Magnesium, Manganese, and Soda Ash stayed comparatively calm, with Manganese down 2.26% on the week on soft Chinese industrial demand — a pocket of stability against the volatility in nitrogen and phosphate.
Fertilizer prices for the week of July 6–13, 2026, split sharply along nitrogen and phosphate lines. Urea jumped as France’s sudden subsidy announcement sent European buyers scrambling, while DAP extended its year-to-date gains on a hardening raw-material shortage out of Russia and Kazakhstan. Layered on top of both stories is a fast-moving escalation in the Middle East, where a fragile ceasefire collapsed over the weekend and reignited direct clashes near the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint fertilizer shippers have watched nervously all year.
Fertilizer Prices Data Table: Week of July 6–13, 2026
| Commodity | Unit | Price | Weekly % | Monthly % | YTD % | YoY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | USD/T | 395.00 | +4.77% | -1.62% | +2.20% | -9.20% |
| Di-ammonium (DAP) | USD/T | 765.00 | +2.00% | -1.92% | +22.40% | +4.94% |
| Sulfur | CNY/T | 8,885.67 | -2.74% | -7.03% | +142.71% | +285.61% |
| Phosphorus | CNY/T | 1,028.00 | 0.00% | +0.05% | +0.29% | -0.66% |
| Magnesium | CNY/T | 16,900 | +0.60% | -2.87% | +1.50% | -2.59% |
| Manganese | CNY/mtu | 30.25 | -2.26% | -5.32% | 0.00% | +2.72% |
| Soda Ash | CNY/T | 1,120.00 | -0.89% | -3.95% | -10.40% | -4.60% |
Source: Trading Economics. Data as of July 9–10, 2026.
Nitrogen & Urea: France’s Subsidy Shock Ripples Through European Demand
On July 9, the French government announced an emergency subsidy of €50 to €70 per tonne for direct purchases of straight nitrogen fertilizers, aimed at cushioning local farmers from elevated input costs. Rather than easing the market, the announcement had the opposite near-term effect: French buyers rushed to lock in orders ahead of an expected supply crunch, and local urea prices spiked from €460/t to €495/t FCA in just 48 hours, according to Argus Media. Multiple European producers pulled their offers from the market entirely to reassess pricing amid the sudden demand shock.
The global Urea benchmark tracked by Trading Economics rose 4.77% on the week to $395/T, though it remains down 9.20% year-over-year and down 1.62% on the month — a reminder that the French subsidy shock is, so far, a regional flashpoint rather than a global repricing. Whether the buying frenzy spreads to other EU markets as farmers elsewhere seek similar relief is the key question for nitrogen markets heading into the back half of July.
Phosphates & Sulfur: Russia-Kazakhstan Export Bans Tighten the Raw Material Chain
While nitrogen dealt with a demand-side shock, phosphate markets faced a supply-side one. Russia’s sulfur export ban moved into full effect at the start of July, and Kazakhstan followed with an indefinite suspension of its own sulfur exports via Central Asian land routes, according to Golden Raven and Keyuan Fertilizer. Sulfur is a non-negotiable raw material for phosphoric acid and Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) production, and the combined blockade has removed an estimated 4.2 million tons of expected annual global sulfur supply.
DAP rose 2.00% on the week to $765/T and is now up 22.40% year-to-date, consistent with a phosphate market that the World Bank and SunSirs both describe as structurally tight. Sulfur itself (CNY 8,885.67/T) actually eased 2.74% on the week and 7.03% on the month — but the figure is deceptive. The Russia-Kazakhstan bans only took hold at the start of July, and the July 9–10 pricing snapshot used here may not yet capture their full weight. The year-over-year comparison tells the real story: sulfur is up 285.61% from a year ago and 142.71% year-to-date, underscoring how rigid and elevated the phosphate raw-material chain had already become before this latest disruption is even fully priced in.
Elemental Phosphorus (CNY 1,028.00/T) was essentially flat on the week, up just 0.29% year-to-date — a reminder that China’s domestic phosphorus market, driven more by electricity costs and production quotas than by seaborne sulfur logistics, has so far been comparatively insulated from the raw-material squeeze hitting phosphoric acid and DAP.
Middle East Escalation: A New Wildcard for Fertilizer Shipping Lanes
Compounding both stories is a sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict over July 11–12, when a fragile, days-long US-Iran ceasefire collapsed following intense maritime and aerial strikes, according to The Hindu. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed after a drone strike set a container ship ablaze, while overnight US airstrikes on Iranian targets were followed by Iranian missile and drone attacks on US military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar, per Al Jazeera. US Central Command maintains that international shipping traffic is still moving, but strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island and explosions near Bandar Abbas point to a rapidly deteriorating security picture in one of the world’s most important fertilizer and energy shipping corridors.
The price impact on fertilizer markets is TBD. This week’s data predates the worst of the July 11–12 escalation, so neither the Urea nor DAP figures above reflect it. Given the Strait’s history as a chokepoint for both nitrogen and phosphate cargoes earlier this year, a sustained closure or extended hostilities would be a clear upside risk for prices in next week’s update.
Minor Nutrients & Industrial Inputs: A Pocket of Relative Calm
Magnesium (CNY 16,900/T, +0.60% weekly, +1.50% YTD) and Manganese (CNY 30.25/mtu, -2.26% weekly, +2.72% YoY) moved in opposite directions but stayed within normal ranges, with Manganese’s dip attributed to soft Chinese industrial demand rather than any new supply disruption. Soda Ash (CNY 1,120.00/T) slipped 0.89% on the week and remains down 10.40% year-to-date, still weighed down by persistent Chinese production overcapacity. For now, this minor-nutrient complex remains a relative source of stability compared to the volatility unfolding in nitrogen and phosphate — though that could shift quickly if the Middle East standoff or the sulfur export bans start feeding through to broader industrial and agricultural input costs.
All commodity data in this update is sourced from Trading Economics. For context on how these price movements are flowing through to crop economics, see the iGrow News agricultural commodities weekly update; for the impact on agribusiness valuations, see the agriculture stocks performance tracker.
