Key Takeaways
- Urea fertilizer prices declined to $502.50/T (-1.95% on the week), pulling back further as diplomatic signals around a potential Strait of Hormuz reopening eased near-term supply panic — prices remain down 12.91% on the month but are still up 9.54% year-over-year, reflecting structural tightness in global nitrogen markets.
- DAP edged down slightly to $785.00/T (-0.32% weekly), essentially consolidating near recent highs as Indian and Southeast Asian import demand remains firm — the 8.28% monthly gain and 18.49% year-over-year rise underscore persistent phosphate market strength tied to ongoing Middle East supply disruptions.
- Magnesium stabilized at CNY 17,300/T (flat on the week), with its -1.14% monthly and -4.42% year-over-year moves reflecting subdued Chinese industrial and agricultural demand amid global trade headwinds; no catalysts for a near-term breakout are in sight.
- Manganese held flat at CNY 33.45/mtu (0.00% weekly), though its 10.58% year-over-year gain signals longer-run tightness; the commodity remains rangebound as Chinese demand remains muted in May.
- Phosphorus and Soda Ash both flat on the week, with Phosphorus at CNY 1,027.50/T (-0.05% monthly) and Soda Ash at CNY 1,196/T (-2.13% monthly) — both trending lower on a 12-month basis as Chinese export pressure and weak domestic fertilizer demand suppress a meaningful recovery.
Fertilizer prices for the week of May 18–25, 2026 showed broad stabilization and modest softening, with Urea retreating to $502.50/T and DAP consolidating near $785/T. The market is digesting mixed signals: a potential US–Iran peace deal and Strait of Hormuz reopening framework (still in final negotiations as of May 25) is easing short-term supply panic, while structural supply deficits built over the past three months of closure remain unresolved. Physical recovery of Middle East crude and gas feedstocks to pre-war production levels is expected to take additional months even if diplomatic normalization proceeds. All commodity data referenced in this update is sourced from Trading Economics. For context on how these price movements are flowing through to crop economics, see the iGrowNews agricultural commodities weekly update; for the impact on agribusiness valuations, see the agriculture stocks performance tracker.
Fertilizer Prices Data Table: Week of May 18–25, 2026
| Commodity | Unit | Price | Weekly % | Monthly % | YTD % | YoY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | USD/T | 502.50 | -1.95% | -12.91% | +30.01% | +9.54% |
| Di-ammonium (DAP) | USD/T | 785.00 | -0.32% | -0.95% | +25.60% | +18.49% |
| Magnesium | CNY/T | 17,300 | 0.00% | -1.14% | +3.90% | -4.42% |
| Manganese | CNY/mtu | 33.45 | 0.00% | 0.00% | +10.58% | +11.31% |
| Phosphorus | CNY/T | 1,027.50 | 0.00% | -0.05% | +0.24% | -1.18% |
| Soda Ash | CNY/T | 1,196.00 | 0.00% | -2.13% | -4.32% | -14.20% |
Source: Trading Economics. Data as of May 25, 2026.
Nitrogen & Urea: Diplomatic Signals Ease Supply Panic
Urea slid a further 1.95% this week to $502.50/T, now down nearly 13% on the month as markets begin pricing in the possibility of a Strait of Hormuz reopening. US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that a diplomatic deal with Iran is in its final drafting stages, with a three-stage framework — mediated through Pakistan and Qatar — including a formal end to active hostilities and direct resolution of the Hormuz crisis. However, market participants remain cautious: experts note that a physical recovery of Gulf crude and LNG feedstock flows back to pre-war baselines could still take months. UK granular urea and Middle East-origin spot cargoes remain at significant structural premiums. The 27.41% year-on-year decline in urea prices does reflect some demand destruction and buyer hesitancy at elevated levels seen earlier in the conflict period.
